Welcome to the Deep Dive. We’ve gathered quite a stack of sources, articles, research, various notes, and our job is to pull out the really crucial insights for you. That’s right. The mission’s pretty straightforward. Cut through all the noise, help you get well informed and do it quickly. And today we’re diving deep into the latest in commercial real estate news.

We’ll have a sharp focus on the retail sector and especially what’s developing right here in Texas, particularly the Dallas-Fort Worth market, which is seeing a lot of activity. Our sources for this cover, roughly late May through early June, 2025. Okay, so let’s start with the the big picture. The broader economy seems to be casting a bit of a shadow over commercial real estate values right now.

Yeah, the economic context is it’s really key here. City research, for instance, recently flagged housing market weakness. They called it the top threat to the US economy. And how is that playing out? We’re seeing it, with mortgage rates, they’re staying stubbornly high. You’re 7% that directly hits home sales pushes inventory up. And analysts are definitely warning that this kind of housing slowdown, historically, it’s often been a sign, a precursor to broader recessionary pressures. And those pressures are now hitting commercial real estate. They are quite visibly. What’s really notable according to MSCIs, RCA indices, is that for the first time since, 2010. We’re seeing value declines. Across all the major CRD sectors at the same time, all of them. So office retail, industrial, and multifamily. Yeah. The indices show declines both months over month and year over year. Multifamily, which had quite a strong run, is down about 12.1% year over year in these specific indices.

Wow. Yes, even retail properties are seeing value drops nationally within this broader environment. So this isn’t just, an office story we’ve been hearing about. It’s really a cross sector impact tied to those economic headwinds, and I assume higher interest rates, precisely the Federal Reserve stance on rates, which is obviously influenced by indicators like housing or, potential job market shifts.

It is a direct impact on CRE valuations, the cost of debt. And speaking of debt, are we seeing signs of strain there too? We are. It’s showing up in the delinquency data. There’s an MBA report indicating rising loan delinquencies back in Q1 2025 for commercial properties. Which sectors specifically?

Lodging and industrial saw increases, but it’s also worth noting that government backed multi-family loans. Also saw a jump. Okay. It suggests that these sustained higher rates, combined with the general uncertainty are just making it tougher for some borrowers to service their CRE debt across different property types.

Okay? So nationally values are broadly ticking down debts, showing some stress signs, but if we drill down specifically into retail. Are there maybe different dynamics happening there? Perhaps a bit of a counter story. We’ve heard reports about supply shortages in some retail areas. That’s exactly where the picture gets well more nuanced.

While that national macro data points towards overall value declines, there’s a very real supply site issue affecting certain types of retail, and that’s creating pockets of strength. Pockets of strength, yeah. Major developers like Regency Centers for example, they’re highlighting a significant shortage of new high quality neighborhood.

Community shopping centers, the kind people visit regularly. How significant is this shortage? What kind of scale are we talking about? Sources like G Globalist and other industry reports show that retail construction completions nationally from 2021 through 2023. Were incredibly low, like over 80% below the levels we saw back in the mid two thousands, 80% below.

Wow. Yeah. And this has resulted in what’s estimated to be a national deficit of roughly 200 million square feet of new retail space compared to those historical building rates, 200 million square feet that didn’t get built. That must put some serious pressure on the available space. It absolutely does.

Yeah. And developers are. Responding strategically. They’re focusing more now on partnering with masterplan communities, especially in these fast growing suburban areas. Makes sense. And they’re anchoring their centers with necessity based retailers. Think grocery stores, whole Foods, HEB here in Texas.

Places people go every week. Almost regardless of the broader economy. Building in that reliable foot traffic. Exactly. It aims to build in demand and stability and despite those economic headwinds we just talked about reports from mid-May, were still showing robust leasing activity and consistent foot traffic in these types of necessity, anchored, convenience focused retail centers.

It seems driven by basic consumer habits. That’s fascinating how that supply constraint creates opportunities even while national values are maybe softening. Overall, it suggests certain retail assets must still be pretty desirable for investors. Oh, absolutely. And the investor appetite for these specific assets really confirms it.

We just saw Nuveen real estate close on, what was it, $320 million for? Its US City’s retail fund. Okay. And its specific goal is targeting grocery anchored centers. Their head of retail actually described the current market as a great vintage moment for buying these types of necessity based assets. A great vintage moment.

That’s quite a statement. It is that level of capital formation specifically for this niche within retail. It just underscores the perceived resilience and attractiveness of these daily needs centers, even in a, let’s say, more challenging environment. Okay, so there’s definite strong demand in capital chasing certain kinds of retail, especially necessity based, but.

If we look at the broader national leasing picture, across all types of retail space, what’s the story there? Is that also showing strength? The broader national leasing picture, that’s where those macro factors we discussed earlier really bite and it creates more of a mixed bag. Frankly, I.

Data from Cushman and Wakefield, for instance, points to shrinking US retail, net absorption. Net absorption, meaning the overall change in occupied space. Exactly. And Q1 2024 actually saw retailers vacate nearly 6 million square feet more than they leased nationally. That was the worst quarter since 2020.

Oh and Q1 2025 also showed negative net absorption around negative 5.9 million square feet. So nationwide, more space is being given back than is being taken up by new tenants. That’s the trend. Correct. And that negative absorption is partly driven by, retailer distress and bankruptcies.

Companies like Joanne Party City, their closures contribute. But there’s another significant factor impacting leasing activity right now and may be a less obvious one. Tariffs. Tariffs, really. How do trade tariffs directly affect a retailer’s decision to sign a new lease? It mainly creates uncertainty and impacts their costs.

Sources like Reuters linked slower national retail sales back in April, they were almost flat. Up only 0.1% directly to the effects of higher tariffs. This added cost pressure leads some retailers to cut their financial guidance, reduce inventory orders, and that uncertainty around tariffs combined with ongoing inflation.

I. It’s cited as a reason why some tenants are just pausing decisions on new leases. Little back. Yeah. They’re in a wait and see mode about how tariff policies are gonna shake out. That makes perfect sense. If your cost for goods could change unpredictably because of tariffs committing to a long-term fixed rent payment suddenly looks.

A lot riskier. Precisely. Simon property group’s, CEO specifically mentioned this. He said tariff uncertainty is causing retailers to delay purchases and in some cases even walk away from potential lease deals they were considering. Wow. And he expressed particular concern for the smaller tenants, the less capitalized ones, who are just more vulnerable to these kinds of cost fluctuations.

Sure. Meanwhile, you see the larger players, Macy’s, target. Apple. They’re actively trying to shift parts of their supply chains away from China to mitigate future tariff risks, but that often involves short-term cost increases and logistical hurdles. Not an easy switch. Not at all. And while there’s some temporary relief for specific inputs, the White House extended certain tariff exclusions through August 31st.

The overall climate of uncertainty is still there and it’s influencing retail expansion plans nationally. Okay, so nationally values dipping some debt stress overall retail leasing negative, partly due to bankruptcies in this tariff uncertainty, making tenants cautious. But as you said, that seems to contrast pretty sharply with what we’re hearing about the Texas market.

Let’s shift our focus right here. Yeah. Let’s connect this back. If we look at Texas and DFW and Houston specifically, they really stand out as well a counterpoint to some of those national trends. The NAR Commercial Insights report had a really surprising data point. What was that? Dallas and Houston were the top two US markets for retail space absorption in the first quarter of 2025.

The top two in the whole country while the national number was negative. That is quite a contrast. It really is. And the NAR report specifically highlighted that suburban and grocery anchored retail properties in Sunbelt metros like Dallas and Houston are remaining strong, even while demand is softening in some of the, legacy gateway markets.

That fits perfectly with what you were saying about necessity retail and growing areas. Exactly, and you see this strength reflected in just the sheer scale of development happening here in DFW that integrates retail components. This is where the local story gets really interesting, especially for us focused on DFW.

Tell us about some of these multi-billion dollar developments. Particularly up in Frisco. Frisco is, yeah, arguably the prime example of this integrated growth model right now. Yeah. You have the Fields master plan, which is just immense. Multi-billion dollar Cara hand companies just broke ground on the preserve.

Okay. It’s a large gated residential community, and it’s specifically designed to provide shoppers for the adjacent $2 billion. Fields West mixed use part. Ah, building the customer base right next to precisely, and that Fields West Retail Center. It’s about 55 acres already around 70% pre-leased.

Apparently it’s planned to be 20% larger than Legacy West, if you can believe it. Wow, when is that supposed to open? They’re expecting retail elements to start opening by early 2028. So they’re not just building retail in isolation, they’re building the whole ecosystem around it. The homes, the offices, all designed to generate demand, right On site.

It’s about creating that density that built-in customer base, you mentioned. Exactly. And Fields isn’t even the only massive project up there. You’ve also got the mix. That’s a $3 billion project and Firefly Park valued somewhere between 2.5 and $4 billion. Both are adding millions of square feet of various uses, including a lot of retail, and these are all moving forward despite the national headwinds.

Yes. Which really shows the immense capital and confidence pouring into DFWs growth story. And it’s not just Frisco. McKinney also has some big plans announced recently. That’s right. Billing Z Company is planning Huntington Park. That’s a huge 800 acre master plan community in McKinney. 800 acres. Yeah, it includes thousands of new homes, but alongside that, 175 acres are specifically designated for commercial development, mixing retail and office space.

The same strategy again, integrate retail within large scale residential growth in these expanding suburbs. It confirms that strategy of securing large land tracks and planning comprehensively, but it’s not just about brand new development. Even existing centers are showing some resilience and adaptation.

The Town East Mall story in Mesquite comes to mind there. That seems like an interesting case of survival. It does. Brookfield Properties managed to avert foreclosure at a pretty large loan for Town East. The mall is reportedly still holding strong, around 90% occupied. I. That’s high occupancy these days for a traditional mall.

It is, and they’re actively adding new anchors like a Main Event Entertainment Center, going into a former Sears space. The city’s even providing support, including tax incentives to help keep the Macy’s anchor store there. So it shows that even some traditional suburban centers, which face challenges nationally, can remain viable here with solid occupancy, adaptive reuse strategies, and crucially local support.

Exactly. And we see continued investment hints across Texas too, beyond just EFW Walmart opening. Its first new US Supercenter in years down in Cyprus, near Houston. A Costco site plan approved near Austin, Amazon planning a distribution center down in Brownsville. Texas clearly remains a major target for retail and related logistics investment.

Okay. So Texas, especially DFW, showing incredible growth, resilience in retail absorption, huge integrated projects. But you mentioned a unique Texas challenge, looming something that could disrupt things. Yeah, it raises an important. Potential issue. While we see all this growth and focus on necessity retail, there’s a specific Texas legislative challenge that could potentially disrupt a significant chunk of retail space quite rapidly.

You must be referring to the Texas Hemp Bill Senate Bill three, precisely Texas Senate Bill three, which is basically designed to outlaw the sale of intoxicating hemp products. Delta eight and similar things. It’s currently sitting on the governor’s desk awaiting a decision. Okay. If it gets signed into law, analysts are estimating, it could force the closure of something like 8,500 hemp shops across the entire state.

8,500 shops potentially closing down. That is a huge number of storefronts that could suddenly become vacant. The potential footprint is, yeah, pretty substantial. The Texas hemp industry is estimated as a $5.5 billion annual business supports maybe 50,000 jobs statewide. Yeah. And what analysis suggested these shops collectively occupy maybe up to 17 million square feet of retail space across Texas 17 million square feet.

Yeah, that’s significant. To put it into perspective, just in the Houston area, analysts estimate around 407 shops could close. That could vacate somewhere between say, 600, 10,800 14,000 square feet. Yeah, that’s roughly the size of the Toyota Center arena, just in Houston. Good grief. Yeah. One source even noted there were actually more Houston area hemp shops than there were McDonald’s locations.

That really drives home the scale. It could have a very visible impact on local retail strips and centers. Absolutely. It creates what one Dallas landlord, Monte Anderson called a potential ripple effect when he was urging the governor to veto the bill. He highlighted the disruption it could cause to local leasing markets.

Sure. Now, obviously there are differing perspectives. Legislators cite concerns about youth safety. Industry advocates argue it’s become a legitimate, almost necessity based retail sector for some consumers similar to alcohol sales. But regardless of the viewpoint, landlords and the industry are.

Actively mobilizing now lobbying the governor to make sure the potential impact on potentially thousands of commercial properties across Texas, including right here in DFW is fully understood. It really is a complex mix of forces, isn’t it? You’ve got the national economic pressures, the supply constraints, creating specific opportunities, shifting retailer strategies because of things like.

Tariffs. Then this massive local growth here in DFW, side by side, with a potential very sudden regulatory shock that could create a lot of vacancy. How is the CRE industry itself, like the brokerages responding to navigate all this? The response from brokerage firms kinda reflects this split market picture we’ve been talking about.

We’re seeing firms strategically positioning themselves to capitalize on where the opportunities clearly are, particularly in these growth markets like Texas and in those resilient sectors like necessity, retail. So they’re adding resources. Yeah. Newmark, for example, has been expanding its retail teams nationally.

More relevant for our focus here, Avison Young promoted leadership specifically to target Texas retail and land development deals, and JLL recently hired a new lead specifically for development projects right here in Dallas. Okay. These kinds of moves, they signal confidence in the pipeline of retail and mixed use activity, especially in Texas, and they see the need for specialized teams to actually execute those deals effectively in this environment.

And we also see adaptation in the existing market, right? Like that. City place, office to apartment conversion in Dallas, getting city incentives. That seems like another piece of the puzzle. Exactly. That’s a great example of adaptation. Working to reposition underutilized assets and often it requires that public support, that local government collaboration, which is really key to navigating these changing demand dynamics, especially in denser urban areas like parts of DFW.

Creative approaches to existing buildings shows that need for local market knowledge and partnership. So let’s try and bring this all together for you, our listener. Trying to stay on top of what’s happening in commercial real estate, especially retail, especially here in DFW. We’ve definitely seen that nationally there are clear headwinds, right?

Macroeconomic caution tied to housing interest rates, uncertainty from tariffs. That’s all impacting overall CRE values and slowing down national retail leasing. We saw that negative absorption in Q1, but to, and it’s a big, but the story here in Texas, particularly Dallas-Fort Worth is remarkably different.

We’re actually leading the nation in retail absorption. Yeah, quite the contrast. We’re seeing these massive multi-billion dollar master plan developments. Actively integrating retail with residential to create built in demand. Existing suburban centers are finding ways to adapt and survive, even thrive sometimes, and significant capital like that.

Nuveen Fund we mentioned is flowing specifically into necessity based retail assets right here. Precisely because of their perceived stability in this market. So understanding this crucial contrast of the national challenges versus the specific drivers of resilience and frankly, booming growth here in DFW, that’s essential.

Absolutely. And then you add to that, the potential very sudden disruption from something like the Texas hemp. Bill and you have a market that really requires navigating the local specifics, not just relying on national headlines. It just underscores why understanding these really granular dynamics, the interplay of growth, resilience, potential challenges is so important.

If you’re involved in, or even just following the DFW commercial real estate market, it’s true. We’ve seen that while national retail does face those challenges from tariffs, economic uncertainty, the DFW market is demonstrating really distinct strength. It’s propelled by population growth, these huge integrated developments and very robust necessity retail.

So maybe a final thought to leave you with, yeah. Perhaps consider this. How will the sheer scale of all this planned residential growth, we talked about places like Frisco and McKinney combined with the potential for sudden widespread retail vacancy if that hemp bill passes. How will those two forces fundamentally reshape the precise balance of retail supply and demand, and even the tenant V in different sub-markets across Dallas-Fort Worth over the next few years?

There’re really dynamic interplay unfolding right now with potentially significant local impacts to watch.