Welcome to the Deep Dive. Glad to be diving in. This week we’re looking at commercial real estate news, focusing on the week ending May 9th, 2025, and really trying to see what it means for us here in the Dallas-Fort Worth retail market. Yeah, we’ve pulled info from, the usual CRE news sources, right?

And our goal, as always is to pull out the key developments, what’s really happening, and what could the impact be specifically for DFW retail. Okay. So one of the big picture items we need to talk about is, national Unemployment claims. Okay. There’s a CoStar graph out using Department of Labor data from April, just last month.

April, 2025. And what’s it showing? It shows initial claims spiking up a bit hitting around 225,000 near the end of April. And continuing claims are also, trending upwards, getting close to 1,850,000. Okay. Unemployment’s ticking up nationally. The obvious question for anyone in our field, especially retail, CRE, is what’s the FI out for consumer spending? Exactly. That’s the direct link. If more people are out of work or worried about it, that naturally impacts how much money they have or feel comfortable spending. So less spending means retail businesses feel the pinch. It does lower sales can make it harder for them to cover costs like rent.

And that eventually influences demand for retail space itself. And given how significant DFW is as a retail market, we absolutely need to keep a close eye on how these national numbers might start showing up locally. It’s a key indicator. Okay. But then. It’s interesting. Alongside these maybe slightly worrying economic signs, we’re also seeing things on the ground.

Like visual signs of retail activity. We are like Skecher Storefronts mentioned both in malls and strip centers. Yeah. And you’ve got the grocers, whole Foods market. Aldi still very much present and active. So how do we square that? Yeah. We’ve got rising unemployment claims, but then we see these retailers seemingly doing okay.

Or at least staying visible. That’s the nuance, isn’t it? Seeing Sketchers in different formats, for instance, might suggest they’re resilient. Or maybe it’s just, investment plans made earlier that are still playing out. Okay. So it’s not an immediate reaction. Not always. And having both a Whole Foods kind of premium and an Aldi.

More value focused, thriving side by side. That could say something specific about the DFW consumer base. Maybe adapting, looking for value, but still wanting options. So maybe not a broad downturn hitting everyone equally, but perhaps. Different segments reacting differently. Especially here in DFW, that’s quite possible.

You often see that retailers focused on value or essential goods. They might hold steady or even do better when people are being more careful with money. So the activity we’re seeing could reflect that. Or like I said, it might just be that lag time between, the big economic shifts and what you actually see happening with leases and store openings, real estate moves slower.

Makes sense. Now, let’s shift gears slightly. There was also mention or visuals of a big distribution warehouse and industrial facility. How does that fit into the retail picture, especially for DFW? Oh, hugely important. Logistics and distribution are like the backbone of retail now for both online and physical stores.

Absolutely. They support the traditional stores getting their stock, but they’re also critical for e-commerce getting goods directly to shoppers. Oh, and mentions in the news related to this global brands dealing with tariffs. The role of platforms like Shopify, it all points to needing strong supply chains.

And DFW is a major hub for that, right? The massive hub, our location, the transport links, it makes Dallas-Fort Worth vital for moving goods around the country, even globally. So seeing investment there supports the whole retail ecosystem. Got it. And while retail is our main focus today, we also saw mentions of.

Modern office buildings. Yeah. Mixed use developments. They’re not strictly retail, but do they influence it? They definitely do. Think about it, new office buildings bring daytime workers, people who need lunch spots, coffee, maybe run errands nearby. Exactly. I. That foot traffic supports surrounding retail and mixed use projects where you combine living, working, and shopping.

They create their own little ecosystems precisely. They build in a customer base. So continued development of offices and mixed use in DFW. It signals ongoing investment in creating these active environments, which ultimately helps the retail component thrive. Okay, so let’s try and summarize what we’re seeing for the week of May 9th.

As relates to DFW retail feels like a bit of a mixed bag. It does. You’ve got the national unemployment numbers creeping up, which you know, raises a flag about consumer spending maybe cooling off. But at the same time, at the same time, we see physical retailers, different types, still active, and we see ongoing investment in the things that support retail, like logistics and in broader commercial projects that create retail demand.

So for anyone involved in DFW retail. Real estate investors, developers, brokers, tenants, understanding both sides of this is key, isn’t it? You have to weigh those potential macroeconomic headwinds against the actual activity and investment happening on the ground here. It requires a nuanced view, not just looking at one piece of data.

Definitely you need that balanced perspective to make smart decisions right now. So maybe the final thought for you, our listener, is this, how do you see these forces interacting, the potential caution from rising unemployment nationally versus the visible signs of retail life and development here in Dallas-Fort Worth?

Yeah. Where do the challenges lie? And importantly, where might the opportunities be for retail businesses and commercial real estate in DFW over the next few months? It’s about figuring out that balance, right? Between maybe shifting consumer habits and that ongoing need for physical stores, services, and the logistics to back it all up in our market.

That’s the puzzle to watch right now.