Commercial Real Estate News – Week of November 22, 2024

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Commercial Real Estate News – Week of November 22, 2024​

Transcript:

 Hey, everyone ready for another deep dive today. We’re looking into some seriously interesting shifts going on in the retail world. I’m talking the unexpected comeback of urban retail. Yeah, for real, and how AI is about to become your best friend for holiday shopping. It’s kind of funny, we always focus on the huge, obvious trends, but sometimes it’s the small things.

Like, how long a retail lease is that? Tell the real story. Totally. We’ve got reports from CBRE, JLL, and the ICSC, and even some stores. super interesting survey data about AI and how everyone’s planning to shop for the holidays. By the time we’re done with this deep dive, you’ll not only be completely up to date on these trends, but you’ll also have a bunch of fun facts to bust out at your next holiday party.

So let’s kick things off with the CBRE report. Okay. They’re saying the average retail lease in the U. S. is now a whole eight years. That’s up from seven and a half just last year. Yeah, that might not seem like much, but in commercial real estate, That kind of jump really says something. Retailers are feeling a lot more confident these days, especially in those neighborhood and community malls and strip malls, too.

So it’s not just any old retail making this comeback. It’s the places people shop for everyday stuff close to home. It makes total sense that retailers want to be a part of that. But the thing that really caught my eye is that Tampa, Nashville, and San Antonio are leading this trend of longer leases.

What’s making those cities so hot right now? Honestly, it’s a whole mix of things. Those cities are all seeing massive population growth, and their economies are just booming, which brings in even more people and businesses. And that, of course, creates a natural demand for more retail space. It’s that good old supply and demand in action.

Plus, Tampa and Nashville are turning into tech hubs, so they’re drawing in all these young professionals who want convenience and walkable neighborhoods. Interesting. So you’ve got this perfect storm of economic growth and lifestyle preferences driving retail in these cities. But here’s where things get really interesting.

JLL is reporting a full blown urban retail renaissance. After the pandemic hit those areas so hard, who would have thought? It’s a bit of a twist, that’s for sure. But when you look at the bigger picture, it kind of starts to make sense. People are heading back to their offices, tourism is picking up, and consumers are craving that city vibe again.

And it’s not just any stores popping up either. JLL says luxury brands are leading the charge, snagging those prime spots in all the revitalized downtowns. Exactly. Investors are putting their money where their mouth is. They’re seeing the potential in urban retail and betting big on the future of these lively city centers.

It’s a clear shift in the post pandemic real estate scene. And the numbers are seriously impressive. Urban retail’s share of transactions shot up by 180 percent year over year in Q3. We’re talking major cities here. Boston, Chicago, Miami, New York. They’re all back in the urban retail game. It’s really changing how we experience cities these days.

Think about strolling through a vibrant downtown, popping into all these cool boutiques, grabbing some amazing food and catching a show, all within walking distance. That’s the real appeal of urban retail. Okay, so we’ve got retailers feeling optimistic, urban centers are buzzing with activity, but now let’s talk about how AI is getting ready to completely change your holiday shopping game.

This Adobe survey found that a whopping 40 percent of shoppers in the U. S. are planning to use generative AI for their holiday shopping this year. That’s almost half. I gotta admit, I’m super curious about this whole generative AI thing. Can you break that down for us? It’s a pretty fascinating new thing.

Basically, generative AI can create new content, like text, images, even code, based on what it’s learned from tons and tons of data. Think of it like having this super personalized shopping assistant in your pocket. Imagine typing in, find me unique gifts for a tech savvy teenager who’s obsessed with music, and boom.

The AI whips up a list of personalized recommendations, complete with pictures. Product descriptions, reviews, and price comparisons. That’s insane. So it’s not just about hunting down the best deals online. It’s about finding stuff you wouldn’t have even thought of. This could be huge for holiday shopping.

It definitely could. The top ways people are planning to use it, according to this survey, are from for finding those killer deals, tracking down items online super fast, getting brand recommendations and discovering similar products. And what’s even cooler is that it’s not just for the techie early adopters anymore.

People are using it for really practical stuff, especially during the holiday rush. I can totally see why. It’s like having your own personal shopper right in your pocket, guiding you through the craziness of holiday shopping. But what about Good old fashioned Thanksgiving weekend shopping. It seems like the holidays start earlier and earlier every year.

Are people still hitting the stores for Black Friday and Cyber Monday? Oh, absolutely. The ICSC predicts shoppers are going to spend almost 125 billion over Thanksgiving weekend alone. And get this, 90 percent of consumers are planning to shop during that time. So even with all the online shopping and the holidays starting earlier, it’s clear Thanksgiving weekend is still a big deal for shoppers.

It’s fascinating to see how those traditional shopping events are holding their own, even as things change. But tell me, who’s actually doing most of the shopping and spending during Thanksgiving weekend? Well, the ICSC report highlights a pretty interesting trend. It seems that while younger generations like Gen Z and Millennials are more likely to be browsing online and hitting the stores over Thanksgiving weekend, it’s actually Millennials and Gen X who are projected to spend the most.

That’s interesting. Is that a sign of a generational shift in spending power? It’s part of it for sure, but it also just reflects where these generations are in their lives. Millennials and Gen Xers are often at a stage where they have families and bigger households, which naturally leads to more spending, especially during the holidays.

That makes a lot of sense. So we’ve got these big shopping events, but the report also mentioned that deals and discounts are still the biggest motivators for shoppers, with 68 percent of them doing their research ahead of time to find the best bargains. Sounds like people are getting more strategic with their holiday shopping.

Definitely, they’re not just buying on impulse anymore, they’re planning things out to get the most bang for their buck. Especially with how the economy is right now. That means retailers really need to step up their game with those promotions, and create a sense of urgency to grab those shoppers attention.

It’s like a chess match between shoppers and retailers. Mm hmm. And speaking of which, here’s a surprising stat from the ICSC report. Despite all the online shopping, a whopping 88 percent of consumers still plan to shop in physical stores over Thanksgiving weekend. I gotta admit, I thought online shopping would have totally taken over by now.

It really shows how much people still love that in person experience. They still want to touch and feel products, chat with salespeople, and enjoy that social aspect of shopping. But it’s not just about the shopping itself, is it? Malls and shopping centers are changing. They’re becoming more like multi purpose community hubs.

They’re offering dining entertainment and experiences that go beyond just buying stuff. You got it. They’re transforming it to destinations. It’s about spending time with friends and family, grabbing a bite to eat, catching a movie, and maybe doing a little shopping while you’re there. It’s about creating an experience that’s more than just a transaction.

So it’s not just about buying things anymore. It’s about the whole experience, the social interaction, the discovery, that sense of community. It’s about creating places where people want to be. Exactly. And that’s something we’re seeing not just during the holidays, but all year round. This has been a super fascinating look at how retail is changing.

We’ve covered a lot of ground from the surprise comeback of urban retail to how AI is becoming everyone’s shopping buddy. But before we move on to part two, I’m curious. What stands out to you the most from all this? What really strikes me is how resilient and adaptable the retail industry is. Even with all the challenges in recent years, it’s finding new ways to thrive.

From the return of urban retail to embracing AI, the future of shopping is definitely not going to be boring. Couldn’t agree more. It’s a super dynamic and evolving world. And I can’t wait to see what happens next. But for now, let’s take a quick break. When we get back in part two, we’ll dig deeper into the potential challenges and opportunities that are out there for the retail industry.

And we’ll talk about how all of this could impact you as a consumer. Welcome back. It’s super interesting how these seemingly separate trends, longer retail leases, that urban retail comeback, and AI are actually all connected. You’ve definitely got my attention. Tell me more about how these trends all fit together.

Well, think about it. Longer leases tell us retailers are feeling pretty good about the future, and that confidence is partly thanks to the resurgence of urban retail. Right, because more people Living, working and hanging out in cities means a bigger pool of potential customers for those retailers.

Exactly. And this shift back to city centers is opening up all these cool opportunities for retailers to use AI in new ways, not just online, but in their physical stores, too. So we’re not just talking about AI helping us find deals online. We’re talking about it actually changing what it’s like to shop in a store.

For sure. Imagine walking into a store and the AI recognizes you right away, suggests stuff based on what you’ve bought before, and even walks you right to whatever you’re looking for. That sounds like something straight out of a sci fi movie. Yeah. It would be super convenient though. No more wandering around lost trying to find that one specific thing.

Exactly. AI has the potential to make shopping way more efficient, enjoyable, and personalized. But of course, not everyone’s going to be comfortable with that much tech. Some people might find it a bit intrusive or even creepy. That’s a good point. How do retailers find that balance between using all this cool new tech and still respecting people’s privacy?

It’s a tready one. Transparency is key. Retailers need to be upfront about how they’re using AI and give shoppers the option to opt out if they want. It’s about giving people control over their experience. But what about AI’s impact on jobs in retail? There’s a lot of talk about automation taking over from human workers.

That’s definitely a valid concern and a conversation we need to be having as AI becomes more and more a part of our lives. But I don’t think it’s a simple case of robots taking everyone’s jobs. So it’s not all doom and gloom for retail workers then? Not at all. While AI can definitely automate some tasks, it can also free up human employees to focus on things that need creativity, problem solving, and those people skills.

Things that AI just can’t do. So instead of wiping out jobs, it’s more about a shift in the types of jobs in retail? Yes. Exactly. AI can handle those repetitive tasks, like managing inventory or processing transactions, which lets human employees focus on giving amazing customer service, creating those cool in store experiences, or picking out unique products.

That makes a lot of sense. It’s about using AI to help people do What they do best, not replace them altogether. Exactly. And this shift is going to require retraining and upskilling the workforce so they’re ready for these new, more specialized roles. It’s a challenge, but it’s also a big opportunity for retail workers to learn new skills and take on more interesting roles.

Totally agree. It’s about adapting to how things are changing and recognizing that technology can be a tool to create a better future for everyone, not just for making things more efficient or profitable. Speaking of adapting, let’s dive a bit deeper into how physical retail spaces are changing. We touched on this earlier, but I think it deserves a closer look.

For sure, this is where things get really interesting. As online shopping keeps growing, physical stores have to offer more than just a place to buy stuff. They need to become destinations. You’re talking about creating experiences that go beyond just Exactly. It’s about creating that sense of community, a place where people want to hang out, connect with others, and be entertained.

Can you give us some real world examples of what that actually looks like? We’re already seeing malls and shopping centers adding things like restaurants, movie theaters, fitness centers, art installations, and even co working spaces. It’s like they’re turning into little cities within cities. In a way, yeah, they’re becoming hubs for social interaction, entertainment, and even work.

This whole blending of retail, leisure, and work is only going to keep going. Okay, I’m picturing this. I meet a friend for coffee at the mall’s super trendy cafe. Then we browse the bookstore, check out the latest art exhibit, maybe pop into a few stores. And then I head up to the co working space to get some work done.

All under one roof. It’s like a one stop shop for life. Exactly. And that’s just one scenario. Imagine farmer’s markets, live music, cooking classes, book readings, pop up shops. The possibilities are endless. It’s all about that sense of discovery and surprise. You never know what you’ll find when you step into one of these reimagined retail spaces.

But is this model actually sustainable? Can every mall and shopping center pull off this kind of transformation? That’s a great question. And the answer is probably not. Not every retail space is going to be able to do this. It takes a special mix of things. A great location, really understanding the local community, being willing to invest in new ideas, and a good dose of creativity.

So there’s no one size fits all solution for malls and shopping centers trying to adapt? Nope. Each space needs to find its own identity and cater to what its community specifically wants and needs. Those cookie cutter approaches just aren’t going to cut it. It’s all about being adaptable, flexible, and trying new things to see what works.

Exactly, and it’s about understanding that what physical retail is for is fundamentally changing. It’s not just about transactions anymore, it’s about building connections and that sense of belonging. I’m noticing a theme here, whether it’s AI or how physical retail spaces are changing. It’s all about creating a more personal and engaging experience for the shopper.

You hit the nail on the head. That focus on the customer experience is what’s going to make or break you in this ever changing retail world. So what does all this mean for the future of shopping? Any predictions? I think we’ll see even more blending between online and offline shopping. AI is going to play a much bigger role in personalizing the whole experience, both online and in stores.

And those physical stores will keep evolving into these multi purpose destinations that offer way more than just products. Exactly. The future of retail is about creating a seamless, personalized, and engaging experience that really meets the needs and wants of today’s shoppers. This has been such an insightful conversation and I feel like my brain is buzzing with new ideas.

But before we get too carried away with the future, let’s come back down to earth for a minute. When we come back for part three, we’re going to shift the focus to you, the consumer, and explore what all this means for your actual shopping experience in a real practical way. Okay, we’re back for the last part of our deep dive into the future of retail.

And this time, I’m going to talk to you about It’s all about you. What does this whole retail renaissance and the AI revolution actually mean for your shopping experience? It’s a pretty wild time to be a shopper right now. You’ve got more choices than ever before, and technology is giving you all these tools to be a smarter consumer.

Let’s break it down. We talked about this big comeback of urban retail. What are the actual benefits for everyday shoppers? Well, first off, it means more options right in your neighborhood. You can enjoy all the convenience of local shops, the energy of a revitalized downtown, and those unique experiences you just don’t get in the suburbs.

So it’s about having everything right at your fingertips. No more driving out to the burbs for every little thing. Exactly. And with all these luxury brands setting up shop in city centers, you’ve got access to a much wider range of products and services, even if you’re just window shopping. But let’s be real, luxury brands aren’t exactly known for being easy on the wallet.

Is this urban retail boom really good for everyone, or just those with a lot of cash to throw around? That’s a fair point. For this trend to really work, it needs to be inclusive and cater to a mix of incomes and needs. Hopefully, as this urban retail renaissance keeps going, we’ll see a better balance of businesses that appeal to all kinds of budgets and lifestyles.

It’s about creating a healthy retail ecosystem where everyone feels welcome and can find what they need no matter how much they can spend. Absolutely, and that’s where community engagement becomes so important. Retailers need to really listen to what their communities want and offer products and services that make sense for everyone.

Now let’s talk AI. We discussed how it can personalize your shopping and make things super efficient, but I think it’s safe to say some people are a bit uneasy about it. What are your thoughts on that? I totally get it. People are worried about their privacy, their data being safe, and AI being used in ways that feel manipulative.

And those are valid concerns. So how do we navigate this new AI powered world as shoppers? What can we do to protect ourselves? Being aware is key. Be informed about how retailers are using your data, and what AI tools they’re using. Read those privacy policies, don’t be afraid to ask questions, and be careful about what you’re sharing online.

It’s about taking control of your digital footprint and making smart choices about what you’re okay with sharing. Exactly. And you always have the option to say no to data collection or those personalized recommendations if you’re not comfortable. You have the right to control your own data. That’s good to know.

It’s not about rejecting technology altogether. It’s about using it on your own terms. Precisely. And don’t forget, you can always just shop in physical stores where AI might not be as big a thing. The great thing about this retail renaissance is you have choices. You can shop online, in store, or mix it up.

You can embrace AI or choose to limit how much you use it. It’s all about finding what works best for you. And that’s what’s so exciting. This whole changing retail landscape gives you the power to be a more conscious, informed, and picky consumer. You’re the one in control. So as we wrap up this deep dive, what’s the one thing you want our listeners to take away from all of this?

The future of retail is being shaped right now, and you have the power to shape it through your choices, your preferences, and what you demand. Embrace the convenience of technology, but do it thoughtfully and critically. Support businesses that reflect your values and demand transparency and ethical practices from the companies you choose to support.

Well said. It’s about being an active part of the retail world, not just a passive consumer. Thanks for joining us on this deep dive into the future of retail. Remember, the future of shopping is what we make it.

** News Sources: CoStar Group