Commercial Real Estate News – Week of March 28, 2025
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Commercial Real Estate News – Week of March 28, 2025
Transcript:
Hey. Yes. Welcome back. Today we’re gonna be, uh, taking a pretty deep look in the US commercial real estate market. Mm-hmm. Uh, using the MSCI real assets. Okay. US Capital Trends report Yeah. For February, 2025. Um, and we’re gonna be looking at it kind of through the lens of some analysis done by JP Morgan.
Okay, great. So, sounds good. Um, yeah, our, our sort of mission for this deep dive is to, uh, yeah, really pull out the key insights from this report, uh, so you can get a really clear understanding of what’s going on in the market, uh, um, without having to like wade through a lot of data. Yeah. Makes sense. So, uh, yeah, think of it as your, uh, your quick route to being really informed That’s cool.
About the CRE landscape. Cool. Um, jumping right into it, uh, the total sales volume. Okay. In US commercial real estate for February, 2025, hit $26 billion. Okay. Um, that’s, you know, pretty, pretty notable. 23% increase compared to, uh, the 21.1 billion that we saw in February of last year. Big jump. So, um, yeah. You know, at first glance it looks like kind of a big jump, right?
It does. Uh, but maybe we should dig into a little bit about what makes up Yeah. That 26 billion, let’s unpack that a little bit. Yeah. Because, uh, you know, a big thing that the report points out is, uh, these things called entity deals. Okay. Um, which totaled $4 billion in February, 2025. Mm-hmm. Um, and what’s interesting is there weren’t any in the same month last year.
Entity deals. Yeah. Yeah. Um, so for those of us who maybe aren’t super familiar with, uh, all the ins and outs of CRE Sure. Uh, why should we be paying attention to these when we’re trying to kind of gauge the temperature, right? Of like the commercial real estate asset market? Yeah. So, you know, that’s a really good question and it’s a really important distinction because when we’re typically talking about CRE transactions, we’re talking about.
Uh, individual properties like office buildings, right. Retail centers being bought and sold. Right. Um, but entity deals, um, often involve the sale of like a whole company or a large collection of properties. Yeah. Under like a single corporate structure. And these can happen, you know, as a result of, uh, you know, company strategies mm-hmm.
Mergers and acquisitions. Ooh. So, um, you know, whereas a regular sale Yeah. Would tell us about demand for like a certain type of building. Yeah. You know, entity deals might just reflect a company like restructuring its holdings. Okay. Which doesn’t necessarily mean that more people wanna buy office buildings.
I see. So to really get a clear picture of how individual properties are trading. Right. You know, analysts often separate these out. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah. It’s like a, yeah. Like the difference between looking at how many individual cars were sold versus the sale of a whole like rental car company.
Right. Exactly. Right. Yeah. Yeah. So if we take that $4 billion in entity deals out of that February 20, 25 figure, yeah. What does the year over year growth and transaction volume look like then? Yeah, so when you exclude those entity deals, uh, the year over year growth comes down to a more modest. Okay. But still positive.
Yeah. 4.1%. So this really highlights for you. Yeah. You know, why it’s so important to look beyond just the, you know, the top line numbers to understand the real kind of, uh, dynamics that are happening. Yeah, absolutely. It’s about kind of like peeling back the layers and seeing what’s really happening under there.
Yeah. Um, so the report also mentions, uh, something that’s maybe not always the most, uh. You know, eye catching headline, but Right. Important nonetheless, which is revisions Yeah. To data from previous months. Yeah. Um, it seems like those initial numbers we see aren’t always totally set in stone. That’s right.
And that’s actually a pretty normal part Yeah. Of how market data gets reported. Okay. You know, initial figures are often based on early information mm-hmm. And they get refined as more complete data becomes available. Yeah. So what this report shows is like. Modest upward revisions for recent months. Okay.
Which generally suggests that the initial picture was maybe a little bit understated. Okay. Uh, are there any specific revisions that sort of jump out at us? Yeah, so the transaction volume for January, 2025. Uh, again excluding entity deals. Right. Saw a pretty big upward revision of 12.6%. Wow. Um, so that brings the total for January to $32.6 billion, which is a pretty robust 20.3% increase.
Yeah. Compared to January of last year. Wow. Okay. Um, interestingly, the figures for December and November, 2024 are now pretty much finalized with less than a 1% upward revision. Okay. So it seems like the more recent the data Yeah, the more it’s subject to change. For sure. For sure. Um. Okay. So let’s take a step back and look at kind of the bigger picture.
Okay. Um, how does what we’re seeing in February and the beginning of 2025 sort of stack up against Yeah. The trends we saw? Yeah, good. Quickly at the end of last year, um, so according to MSCI, real assets, uh, the fourth quarter of 2024 showed a really, really strong Okay. Surge in US transaction volume, excluding entity deals.
Okay. Um, with a notable 47.5% year over year growth. Wow. That’s a, the big jump. That’s a huge jump. Yeah. Um, and the report mentions that. This aligns with what some of the big CRE service companies were reporting. That’s right. Like, does that Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. JP Morgan highlights that revenue reports from companies like JLL Okay.
Indicated a similar, uh, strong performance in their business segment. Yeah. Uh, with JLL reporting a plus 51% year over year increase. Okay. So it sounds like. And so that kind of agreement across different sources makes the data seem Yeah. It really strengthens the credibility Yeah. Of the MSCI data. Okay, cool.
So a strong finish to 2024. Yeah. Um, now bringing it back to the start of this year. Yeah. Um, the report gives us an initial year to date growth figure. Right. For January and February of 2025. Right. What’s that looking like? So based on the data we have for the first two months, uh, the initial year to date growth comes in at plus 13.2%.
Okay. Um, so that’s a positive start, but yeah, it is important to keep in mind those historical upward revisions. Right, right. Those adjustments. Yeah. Um, I think the report mentioned a, a potential 30% upward swing between the initial and the finalized figures. Yeah, that could, I’m really, that could really change things.
Yeah. Yeah. If we just apply like a 1.3 x multiplier mm-hmm. Like the report suggests based on historical patterns. Yeah. Um, the year to date growth for January and February could potentially jump to around plus 37.3%. Wow. Okay. Year over year. Um, and similarly, February’s growth excluding entity deals might have been closer to plus 35.3%.
Yep. Year over year. Yeah. Now this is just a projection, right. Based on past trends. Got it. So it’s something to watch. Yeah, for sure. As more finalized data comes out. Okay. So the, the initial 13.2 is good news, but the reality could be, could be even better. Much, much stronger. Yeah. Um, now JP Morgan also offers their own kind of take on this, right.
Um, mentioning their internal models Yeah. For revenue growth in CRE service companies. Right. Um, what are they anticipating? So their internal models are projecting a more conservative plus 12% year over year growth. Yeah. In global capital markets revenue for those companies. Okay. In the first quarter.
Right. Um, they point out that this is a global figure, right? So it could be affected by slower activity in regions outside the US Yeah. And also by some, you know, one-off items in the financial reporting. Right. But, uh, it’s like a slightly more cautious. Outlook, but Yeah. Still in positive territory. Yeah.
Yeah. The report specifically says that they’re no less encouraged. Okay. By the initial US transaction data. Yeah. Even though they have that more, you know, tempered global forecast. Yeah. It sounds like they’re acknowledging the strong US data. Yeah. But they’re also kind of tempering it with the broader global picture.
Exactly. Exactly. And they also include, yeah, a really interesting real world anecdote. Yeah. Um. About a recent breakfast with C-B-E-C-E-O, Bob Tic. Oh, okay. That sounds like it could offer some Yeah. Interesting. On the ground. Yeah, exactly. Insights. Yeah. So he indicated that he’s seeing a narrowing of the bid ask spread in the capital markets.
Okay. Which basically means that the difference between the price sellers want for properties, right. And what buyers are willing to pay is getting smaller. Okay. Um, and this is often a sign that, you know. More deals are likely to happen. Think so because buyers and sellers are kind of finding common ground.
Yeah. That’s a really positive sign. Yeah. Suggesting that some of that uncertainty that we’ve been seeing, right. Is starting to maybe resolve a little bit. Absolutely. And maybe even more noteworthy was his comment about interest rates. Okay. He suggested that interest rates are appearing to be less of an obstacle to transactions.
Okay. And he even indicated that the market could potentially absorb. Wow. A 10 year treasury yield. Okay. Climbing up to 5%. That’s pretty significant. Yeah. That’s a big statement. Yeah. You know, it implies that there’s a greater willingness and ability for both buyers and sellers, right, to make deals. Even if rates are a bit higher than we’ve seen recently.
It seems like the market might be. Kind of adjusting Yeah. Finding its footing in this new rate environment. Yeah, for sure. And you know, hearing this kind of sentiment from someone like A-C-B-E-C-E-O Right. Who has, you know, direct insight into the market Right. Really adds a valuable like qualitative layer Yeah.
To all the quantitative data we’re seeing in the report. Yeah, for sure. Okay. So we’re seeing some generally positive signs in the overall transaction. Volumes. Yeah. Um, we’re hearing some encouraging things from industry leaders. Yeah. Uh, but let’s break down that February, 2025 transaction volume by specific.
Property sector. Okay. Um, were there any surprises in terms of like, which property types saw the most activity? Yeah, there were definitely some interesting dynamics at play. Okay. And likely some surprises. All right. Let’s go through ’em one by one. Okay. Uh, which one saw the biggest jumps in transaction volume?
So leading the way by a pretty big margin was the retail sector. Yep. Uh, which. Posted a pretty remarkable plus 105% year over year growth. Wow. Okay. Um, and then following that, uh, maybe surprisingly, was the office sector with a substantial plus 55.2% increase. Wow. You know, this really challenges the narrative Yeah.
Around these sectors. Yeah. You know, it suggests that there’s still considerable activity Yeah. And maybe even some renewed interest in these areas. Wow. So retail more than doubled. Yeah. And office, which has kind of been, you know, really scrutinized lately. Yeah. Saw a huge jump. Huge jump. That’s, that’s pretty unexpected I think.
Yeah. For a lot of people, for sure. Um, what about the other property types? Yeah, so hotels also showed really healthy growth at plus 20.2%. Okay. Um, apartments saw more modest increase of 6.7%. Okay. Um, and then bringing up the rear was the industrial sector. Okay. With a very, very slight. Plus 0.5%. It’s a real mix there.
Yeah. Um, it seems like the story of struggling retail and office Yeah. Might be shifting. It might be, at least in terms of transaction activity. Yeah. Um, and industrial, which has been, uh, you know, such a strong performer. Right. Uh, you know, really didn’t grow that much, not so much in February. Yeah. Um, so that’s kind of a.
You know. Interesting. Yeah. It underscores the nuanced Yeah. Nature of the market. Yeah. You know, we can talk about broad trends in CRE, but the actual performance mm-hmm. Can be very different. Yeah. Depending on the specific type of property. Right. Okay. So we’ve looked at the volume of transactions. Yeah.
Let’s turn our attention to pricing, specifically cap rates. Okay. Uh, what did the report tell us about? Average cap rates in February, 2025. So the average cap rate for all CRE transactions in February was 6.53%. Okay. Um, and that’s a very, very slight increase. Yeah. Of three basis points compared to the previous month.
Okay. And remind us again what a basis point is. Yeah. So one basis point is one, 100th of a percentage point. Okay. So it’s a very small change. Tiny, tiny change. Yeah. Um, and what about the cap rates for assets that actually traded in February? Yeah. Broken down by those individual property sectors. Sure. So looking at the average cap rates specific for assets transacted in February.
Yeah. We see, um, office cap rates average 7.72% Okay. Which was an increase of 12 basis points month over month. Okay? Um, industrial cap rates came in at 6.15%, showing a tiny decrease of three basis points from January. Right? Uh, retail cap rates. Average 7.16% up by five basis points month over month. Okay. Um, apartment cap rates were at 5.3 B percent.
Okay. Reflecting a decrease of 10 basis points compared to the previous month. Okay. And finally, hotel cap rates averaged 8.44%. Okay. Which was an increase of 18 basis points month over month. Wow. So we’re seeing some movement in both directions here. Yeah, for sure. Um, you know, the increases in office and hotel Yeah.
Along with the decreases in apartment and industrial mm-hmm. Uh, seem to kind of reflect those, you know, differing levels of demand. Yeah, yeah. Risk in those markets. Yeah. And that jump in hotel cap rates is pretty notable. Yeah, it is. Yeah. And the slight increase in retail cap rates mm-hmm. Despite the strong transaction volume growth in that sector.
Yeah. Is another interesting thing to think about. Yeah, for sure. You know, it suggests that while more retail properties are trading Yep. Pricing might be adjusting a bit. Okay. And then on the other hand, the continued compression Yeah. In apartment cap rates mm-hmm. Could signal, you know, continued strong investor demand in that sector.
Okay. Great. Um, so to kinda summarize everything we’ve covered today, yeah. February, 2025 saw a big overall increase Yeah. In commercial real estate sales volume. It did. Um, but that was really driven by. Those entity deals. Yeah. When we look at just the transactions of individual assets, right. Uh, the growth was more.
Modest, but still positive. Yeah. Um, and I think what’s really fascinating is that the revisions of the data from previous months Yeah. Suggest that those positive trends might actually be even stronger. That’s than what was initially reported. It’s very possible. Um, and then we saw a real mix across the different property sectors.
Yeah, for sure. Uh, retail and office led the way. Yeah. In terms of that year over year transaction volume growth. Yeah. Which is a surprise to some. Yeah, I think so. Given, you know, the recent conversation around those sectors. Yeah, for sure. And then cap rates showed, you know, yeah. Some adjustments, varying adjustments across the different sectors.
Yeah. Which gives us kind of a glimpse into how investors are, right. Viewing those different property types. Exactly. Um. I guess, you know, taking all of this together and considering these trends. Yeah. Um, especially that narrowing bid ask spread, and the suggestion that interest rates might be less of a barrier than we thought.
Right. Um, what does this tell us about where the US commercial real estate market is headed? Yeah, that’s the big question. Yeah. Right. What should we all be thinking about? You know, this data, along with the insights from industry leaders makes you wonder, are we seeing a real shift? Yeah. In market sentiment and activity.
Yeah. You know, that increased willingness to transact, even with some adjustments in cap rates, right. Suggests that maybe there’s a rise in confidence. Okay. Um, but you know, you have to look beyond. Yeah. Just. Transaction volume and cap rates. Right. To really understand what’s going on. Mm-hmm. You have to look at like the underlying health of each sector.
Yeah. Things like occupancy rates. Okay. Rent growth. Mm-hmm. And the overall economic conditions Yeah. That are driving demand for different types of commercial space. Yeah. Um, you know, so. What other unexpected factors might emerge Yeah. In the coming months. Yeah. That could either boost or, you know, slow down this apparent increase in activity.
Right. That’s the big picture to keep in mind. Yeah. Some things to think about. Yeah. Awesome. Well thanks for, uh, walking us through all that. Yeah, of course. Really appreciate it. Happy to do it. And uh, yeah, we’ll be back next week with another deep dive. Sounds good.
** News Sources: CoStar Group