Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today we’re waiting into a pretty complex situation. The US real estate market. Yeah, it’s definitely in a period of flux that’s putting it mildly. Yeah. We’ve got sources looking at the big picture for a commercial real estate, but also a specific snapshot of retail from Q1 2025.

Quite a mix. Our mission here is to pull out the key insights. For you, the learner. We’re especially looking at the distressed side, like office buildings, multi-family housing, trying to help you see the landscape, maybe spot some opportunities without getting totally overwhelmed. Okay. Sounds good.

And it really is a tale of different sectors right now, as you said, commercial office that’s facing some serious headwinds nationally. Yeah, that seems like the big story. But then multifamily housing, it’s much more, varied, depends heavily on where you look and all this is happening while interest rates are still, stubbornly high, even with those Fed adjustments last year.

Let’s dive into the office buildings first. It seems like ground zero for a lot of the turbulence, the whole shift to remote and hybrid work since the pandemic I. That’s really the catalyst, isn’t it? Oh, absolutely. It’s fundamental. Companies are realizing they just don’t need the same amount of space, and frankly, they’re being drawn to newer buildings.

Better amenities. Yeah, maybe better deals too. Exactly. With so much space available, tenants have leverage, especially when looking at, say, class A buildings versus older stock. We saw the national office vacancy rate hit, what was it, 19.8% by the end of 2024, almost 20%. Wow. Nearly one in five offices just sitting empty.

That’s stark. It is stark. And it’s not just older buildings or suburban locations, so they’re often hit harder. It points towards a potential, long-term reshaping of what the office market even looks like. And it’s more than just empty space, right? Yeah. The financial pressure on the landlords must be immense.

Oh, it is. Because even though the Fed cut rates a bit in 24, commercial mortgage rates didn’t really follow suit in a big way. They’re still elevated, still expensive to borrow. Very, and landlords are also facing rising operating costs, utilities, maintenance, taxes, you name it. We’re hearing cases where the rent coming in barely covers those costs before they even think about paying the mortgage.

Oof. So that’s crushed property values. It does. It puts clear downward pressure, which then makes refinancing a massive challenge when those loans mature. So logic would say wave of foreclosures, distressed sales, hitting the market. But the sources suggest that hasn’t really happened. Not on a huge scale anyway.

What’s going on there? It’s this weird kind of standoff, a lot of owners are just holding on, maybe hoping the market turns around, hoping values recover. Buyers meanwhile might be waiting, thinking prices could fall further, and the banks and the lenders. Yeah. They’re often hesitant. Foreclosing is messy.

Managing these properties is costly complex, especially when you’re competing with brand new buildings. So they’re reluctant to officially recognize those losses on their books, so everyone’s waiting each other out. A delicate balance, very delicate, but it means that when deals do happen, they’re often these highly distressed situations or forced sales, and that unfortunately can pull overall pricing down even more.

It’s a tough cycle. But it’s not all doom and gloom everywhere. I think One source mentioned New York City seeing a big jump in office leasing. That’s right. A really significant increase, actually, almost 50% from October 23 to October 24. It really highlights that you can’t paint the whole country with the same brush.

So why NYC? Just a stronger return to office push there. Different industries. It could be a mix of things, certain sectors demanding in-person work, maybe the sheer scale and draw of New York. It shows that strong urban cores, especially for top tier properties, might have a different trajectory. That’s a crucial point.

Location, property class. It all matters. Yeah. And you mentioned the return to office push. Some employers are getting stricter about that, aren’t they? They are. That trend is definitely growing, wanting people back full time, that could certainly help absorb some of that vacant space over time. And there’s another angle too, converting offices to apartments.

I saw New York is looking at rezoning for that. Yes. That’s a really interesting development given how incredibly tight New York’s housing market is. I think the source said vacancy was just 1.4% in October 24. Wow. 1.4%. Yeah. And a shortage of something like half a million homes. So you’ve got this massive oversupply of office space potentially, and this huge undersupply of housing.

The logic for conversion seems pretty compelling there. So for you, the learner listening, yeah, maybe there’s a real opportunity there. Taking empty offices and turning them into needed homes. If you can navigate the complexities, of course, it’s definitely an area smart investors are looking at closely.

Now, if we switch gears to multifamily housing, the picture gets well fuzzier, less uniform distress than an office, right? More regional variation. The sources said. The Northeast seems to be holding up pretty well. Yeah. Rank growth there has been quite strong. Actually. New York City, again, median asking rent was up 2.1% year over year, as of October 24.

What’s keeping it strong there? Just not enough building. Steady demand. Probably a combination. Limited new supply coming online and some of those established markets. Stable local economies and just persistent demand for rental units, but other places. Not so rosy. There was talk about potential rent declines because of a construction boom that started during the pandemic.

Sounds like some cities might get swamped with new apartments. Exactly. And where that new supply is concentrated is key. Austin, Texas is the example. Given median rent there dropped significantly from about oh $4,480 in August 24 down to $1,394. By December 24, that’s a year over year drop of nearly 18%.

Almost unheard of previously. 18% drop. Okay, so that really shows how localized this can be. Too much building in one spot can really hit rents hard. Absolutely supply and demand right down to the neighborhood level sometimes. Yet, despite those headwinds in places like Austin, the sources suggest investors are still buying multifamily, and it might even be a preferred asset in 2025.

How does that square, it suggests investors are being selective. They see the fundamental need for housing long term, but they’re likely focusing on specific markets, maybe specific property types, workforce housing, for example, that seem more stable or have better growth prospects than say. Luxury high rises in an overbuilt area.

Okay. So diligence and local knowledge are absolutely critical there. Always. But especially now, let’s talk about the lenders again for a second. Yeah. Banks and other lenders. What’s their general strategy in this market? The sense is they’re trying to reduce their overall commercial real estate holdings where they can, the old playbook of foreclosing and trying to fix up a struggling property.

It’s just less attractive. Now, why is that More expensive? More expensive? Definitely more complicated. You’re competing with newer buildings. Tenant demand might be lower. It’s harder to turn those assets around successfully. So frankly, they’d rather just avoid having these underperforming loans on their books if possible.

Okay. So if banks are maybe reluctant to foreclose, how do investors actually get into these distressed deals? What are the main ways. There are a few key routes. You can buy the property directly from an owner who’s in trouble maybe before it even gets to foreclosure. You can buy at a foreclosure auction if one does happen, or through a bankruptcy sale.

And another really significant way, as mentioned the source I. Is buying the loan itself from the lender, usually at a discount buying the debt. Okay. Why would an investor do that? What’s the advantage? The big advantage is you get to reset the basis. If you buy the loan for, say, 70 cents on the dollar, your investment is based on that lower amount, which reflects the properties current reality.

Not the inflated value from years ago. Precisely, and then you have options. You can try to work with the existing borrower, negotiate new terms, maybe provide some flexibility that’s a loan workout, or if that doesn’t work, you can proceed with foreclosure yourself, but from a much stronger financial position because you bought the debt cheap.

Got it. Now foreclosure and bankruptcy. They sound legally complex. The source breaks down a few types. Mortgage, foreclosure, UCC, foreclosure, bankruptcy, sales. Can you give us the quick version of the differences? Sure. So mortgage foreclosure is what most people think of the lender. Takes back the actual real estate because the mortgage wasn’t paid.

The process varies by state. Some are faster. Non-judicial states, maybe a few months. Others like New York are judicial, meaning it involves lawsuits and courts and can take, a year or even two. Okay. Quite a difference. What about UCC? UCC foreclosure is a bit different. It targets the ownership interest in the company that owns the property, like the shares and the LLC.

It’s governed by the Uniform Commercial Code, hence UCC. It’s typically much faster, maybe 30 to 90 days faster. Okay. Any catches? A key thing is the lender can credit bid. Basically bid using the debt, the owed. But importantly, whoever buys through a UCC sale usually takes on all the debts tied to that ownership entity, the mortgage, any other liens, taxes, everything.

Ah, so you inherit all the problems potentially, and bankruptcy sales. Those happen within a bankruptcy case. Overseen by a judge can be voluntary, where the borrower agrees or involuntary. A big potential plus for buyers here is the chance to get the property free and clear of existing linen, which the court can approve.

Sometimes faster timelines too. Free and clear. That sounds appealing. It can be. But bankruptcy has its own complexities, of course. So lots of different paths, each with its own rules and risks. If you’re buying the actual property through one of these methods, what are the big legal things to watch out for?

Number one, properties are almost always sold as is where is right. Very limited promises or warranties from the seller. So your own due diligence is absolutely crucial. Meaning, meaning thorough inspections, environmental checks, and especially getting good title insurance and doing a full title search to uncover any leens or claims against the property.

You don’t want surprises later, right? No hidden problems. Exactly. Also, be aware that the current owner or other creditors might try to fight or delay the sale in court. And don’t forget potential real estate transfer taxes, which can be significant depending on the location. Okay? That’s for buying the property.

What if you’re buying the loan instead? What are the key legal checks there? There? Your focus is heavily on the loan documents themselves. The note, the mortgage, any guarantees are they correctly drafted, enforceable. You also still need thorough lien and title searches on the underlying property, even though you’re just buying the paper.

Absolutely, because the property is the collateral securing that paper. You need to know what you’d be getting if you eventually had to foreclose. A challenge can be getting physical access to inspect the property before buying the loan. That’s often limited. Makes sense. So you need protection in the deal itself.

Yes. You want strong protections in your loan purchase agreement. Things like representations and warranties from the selling lender about the loan status, maybe an indemnification clause to cover you if certain things turn out not to be true. It definitely sounds like you need good advisors, lawyers, financial experts, to navigate this.

100%. This is not a DIY space. The source even lays out some key rules for investing here. What are the main takeaways from those rules? First really understand the local market. National trends are one thing, but real estate is local. Analyze how the specific property is doing compared to its competitors.

Second exhaustive due diligence. Look for over-leverage, bad management, hidden liabilities, regulatory issues. Dig deep. Don’t just look at the surface, never. Third. Know what you don’t know. Get experienced professional advice. And finally, understand the nuts and bolts of these distressed transactions. How they work, what can go wrong, what your worst case scenario might be.

Solid advice. Okay, so that covers the distressed commercial side pretty well, but we also have that other report, the one on the retail real estate market for Q1 2025. Sounds like a different story altogether. It is, yeah. A contrasting picture. While office has these deep structural shifts happening, retail seems to be more softening, facing, broader economic headwinds, softening how, what did the Q1 data show?

It showed negative net absorption, meaning more space became vacant than was leased up about 5.9 million square feet nationally. That’s actually the weakest quarter for retail since the start of the pandemic negative absorption. So demand actually shrank in Q1. What’s driving that? A big factor highlighted is tariffs on imported goods.

The expectation is that these will raise costs for retailers, which they might pass on to consumers, exactly, which could lead to higher prices, maybe dampen consumer spending. It also just creates uncertainty for retailers trying to plan inventory, staffing, and investment. The report notes, consumer sentiment, actually dipped pretty low in early April 25 because of these tariff war.

Okay, so tariffs are casting a shadow. Is that showing up in vacancy rates too? Yes, the national retail vacancy rate ticked up slightly to 5.5% in Q1. Still relatively low historically, but up a bit year over year it seems. Neighborhood shopping centers saw the biggest hit in terms of occupancy loss and rents.

Are landlords having to cut rents in retail asking rents were still up slightly year over year, about 2.3% on average nationally, but that growth rate has definitely slowed down, so the upward momentum is fading. It seems so with stores closing the report expects closures to outpace openings and tenants facing those higher costs.

You’d expect more pressure on rent growth going forward. Landlords might have less pricing power, so maybe a tougher time for retail landlords. But does that mean opportunities for tenants? Potentially, yes. If you’re a retailer negotiating a new lease or a renewal, you might find landlords are a bit more flexible, offering better terms or concessions.

Interesting. So the dynamic is shifting. What’s the overall outlook for retail then? According to this report, the outlook is cautious. The market was already cooling a bit before the tariff news, which adds another layer of risk. Retailers themselves are maybe better prepared for disruption after dealing with the pandemic, but it’s still a headwind and vacancy.

Will it keep climbing? It might tick up further. The forecast mentioned potentially reaching 6.0% to 6.5% by early 2026. But one thing limiting a huge spike is that new construction is pretty constrained because building costs are so high so not a flood of new supply coming online to make things worse, right?

That could help stabilize things. Beyond early 2026. If the economy strengthens, maybe things pick up again, but near term it’s a cooler environment. And like with multifamily, I assume retail performance varies a lot by region and type of center too. Oh, definitely. The report likely breaks down those differences.

Some markets doing better, some worse power centers versus malls versus. Neighborhood strips. They all have slightly different dynamics. Granular data is key there too. Okay. This has been incredibly insightful, so let’s try to wrap this up. The US real estate market, definitely a mixed bag right now. That’s the main theme.

Yes, we’ve got major distress in commercial office. Driven by remote work and financial pressures, but that distress might create opportunities, especially these office tour conversion, right? A sector undergoing a real transformation. Then multi-family, much more varied. Some areas strong. Others facing oversupply issues from recent construction requires that a very local focus, very regional, very sub-market specific.

And finally, retail is softening. Not the same structural shift as office, but feeling the pinch from economic factors like tariffs leading to slower rent growth, and maybe some opportunities for tenants, a more cyclical downturn, perhaps exacerbated by current policy and economic conditions. Each sector really dancing to its own tune.

So as we finish this deep dive, here’s a thought to leave you with. The learner. We see these diverging paths. Office and distress, retail, softening office to residential, gaining traction. Looking ahead, what other maybe unforeseen real estate adaptations might emerge as work shopping and living patterns keep shifting.

Could we see completely new types of hybrid spaces or maybe totally different ways of repurposing buildings we haven’t even thought of yet. What’s the next big adaptation? Something to ponder. Definitely a space to watch. The only constant seems to be change. Indeed. Thanks for joining us on the deep dive.

 Okay. So you’ve handed us a really interesting collection of commercial real estate news this time, all from mid-April 2025. Yeah. Quite a snapshot, and as I’m looking through it, the, the big picture that emerges for me is one of a market that’s definitely it’s in flux. Flux is a good word, dynamic.

Maybe even a bit uncertain dynamic feels like an understatement, right? There’s a real sense of things shifting, retail office spaces even how lending is happening and all against this backdrop of, potential tariff changes and these inflation worries that just won’t quit. Exactly. So our mission here, is to try and pull out the crucial bits, connect these dots, and hopefully give you the listener a clearer picture of what’s actually going on, and importantly, why it matters.

Okay, let’s dive in. Starting with retail, it’s always so visible, good places to start. What really jumped out at me was this contrast. In the department store world, you’ve got the ongoing story, Macy’s, JCPenney, closing stores. We’ve seen that for a while. Yeah, that’s not exactly new news.

But then you have Boscovs, this chain from Pennsylvania. They’re actually going the other way. Expanding, opening their 51st store. Is it up near Rochester, New York? Yeah. The mall at Grease Ridge and creating 250 jobs. That feels like a pretty significant statement when so many others are pulling back.

It really is, and it makes you wonder what are they doing differently? What’s their strategy? The articles point to a few things. First, this real emphasis on like actual customer service on the floor with a large staff. They mentioned hiring over a hundred experienced people just for this new location.

Yeah. Which signals a real belief in that, human touch and retail in an age where everything’s pushing online. That commitment to the in-store experience. It could be a key differentiator. Maybe it shows that focusing on that physical experience can still work. Totally. And it seems like they’re not afraid to lean into some of that older retail charm either.

Like they kept their candy section. I saw that. Apparently it’s a genuine draw for people. Bit of nostalgia Maybe I. Could be, plus being smaller, private family owned it. It seems to give them more agility. They can micro-target their marketing locally. That nimbleness is huge and that local focus really shows up in things like their sports apparel sections.

Oh yeah, the article mentioned their Deford Mall store stocking specific gear for Philly teams, Penn State. Temple, Villanova, Penns, even local high schools. Ah, so really embedding themselves in the community that builds loyalty. Exactly. Deep local connection. And it seems to be paying off. They had that bankruptcy back in oh eight, right?

I remember reading about that. But they seem to have turned it around by focusing on these core suburban markets and they, strategically offloaded some smaller spots owned by Macy’s Smart, and now they’re doing what, $1.2 billion across 50 stores. Seems like they found their niche. They really seem to have, but it’s important, like you said, to contrast this with the wider picture For sure.

Yeah, because while Bosca is expanding the broader retail landscape, it’s still facing some pretty big headwinds. We’re still seeing those high profile bankruptcies, store closures. Party City, Joanne. Big Lots, Rite Aid. The list goes on. Yeah. It paints a picture of a really uneven playing field out there.

Definitely. And it’s pushing landlords, forcing them to adapt. We’re seeing reports they have to offer more concessions now what does that mean exactly? Like lower rent? Yeah, things like that. Lower initial rent, maybe rent free periods to start, help with build out costs. Basically sweetening the deal to get tenants in the door.

Okay. Some are even splitting up those big empty boxes, the old department store spaces for smaller places like quick service restaurants or turning old banks into clinics. I saw that mentioned to you. Exactly. It just shows how much that traditional retail model is being, shaken up. It really does, but even in that struggling group.

There are maybe some glimmers of hope, like big lots, right? They’re apparently on the comeback trail reopening nine stores in the south, part of a bigger plan, right? Like 55 stores by early June. Yeah, something like that. And this is after their bankruptcy in 2024. So getting new financing. Reinvesting in physical stores.

That’s significant. It suggests bankruptcy isn’t always the final chapter. Not at all. We’re seeing variety wholesalers too. They own Roses. Super 10 also reopening stores after their restructuring. I. So maybe a chance for a reset if they fix the underlying problems potentially. Yeah. And then you look at the Giants like Walmart, they’re not pulling back from physical stores, are they?

No. That deal with sign value for digital billboards at thousands of stores over 5,000. Yeah. That’s a clear investment in keeping those physical spaces relevant, engaging customers while they’re actually there. Contrast that though, with the children’s place. Okay. What do they do? They seem to be going smaller.

Focusing on smaller store formats, sometimes putting them right next to Gymboree locations. Ah, like a side-by-side strategy. And this is after they cut down their total store count quite a bit. Yeah. And they’re pushing that premium quality angle for Gymboree. So carving out a more specific niche.

Maybe feels like it. Yeah. Okay. So yeah, you’ve got expansion, attempted comebacks, and then this kind of strategic retrenching. Lots of different plays happening. Definitely not a one size fits all situation in retail. Not even close. Now, one result of all this churn is more empty storefronts. Yeah. And it seems like old bank branches are growing.

Part of that problem makes sense with digital banking taking over. The article said it takes, what, six to 12 months on average to lease out a vacant bank space. That’s a long time for a space to sit empty. It is, and it’s leading to some well interesting potential policy ideas like this California proposal Senate Bill 7 89.

The idea to tax landlords for vacant storefronts like $5 per square foot per year, if it’s empty for more than half the year. Yeah. 182 days or more. Okay. So the goal is pretty clear. Push landlords to fill those spaces, reduce blight, maybe raise some funds for things like housing. That’s the argument for it.

Yeah. But there are definitely counter arguments like penalizing landlords for things maybe outside their control market downturns or. Just legitimately needing time to find the right tenant. Not just any tenant. Exactly. And the concern that landlords might just pass that tax cost onto their existing tenants in other properties through higher rents, which doesn’t really solve the vacancy problem, does it?

Not directly. And didn’t San Francisco try something similar already? Yeah. The article mentions that a vacancy tax that apparently didn’t have a huge impact. So these kinds of policies, even if they sound good, can have complex results. Depends a lot on the local market. It’s a tough balance, revitalizing areas without hurting property owners unfairly.

And speaking of struggling areas, that contest in San Francisco. Oh yeah. For ideas to fix up Market Street, it sounds like despite past efforts banning cars, tax breaks, they’re still dealing with high vacancies, low foot traffic. It really highlights that fixing these areas isn’t just about the buildings themselves.

It’s tied to the whole economic vibe, yeah. Attracting businesses, shoppers. It’s a bigger challenge, especially with changing habits, which brings us neatly to those broader economic factors hanging over everything, right? This article, cooling inflation offers cold comfort for uncertain consumers.

It says the CPI actually fell slightly in March. I. First drop since May, 2020. Yeah, a tiny dip, minus 0.1% on the surface. Sounds like good news. What? But the article points out, it’s not really boosting confidence. People still expect high inflation according to those surveys from University of Michigan and the New York Fed.

Okay? And there are still big worries about tariffs, how they might hit spending down the road. So even if the official number dips, the feeling out there is still uncertain pretty much. And it’s not just consumers. The producer Price index, the PPI that tracks costs for businesses, right? It shows input costs are still rising, which could eventually mean, higher prices for us anyway.

And the article mentions construction firms specifically seeing higher costs, which feeds right back into commercial real estate, makes new, builds, big renovations, more expensive, potentially causing delays. Okay, so you’ve got inflation worries, tariff, uncertainty, and that connects to Prologis, the big industrial player.

Exactly. They’re reportedly cutting back on some growth plans, specifically citing trade policy uncertainty. I. Wow. So that uncertainty isn’t just talk. It’s actually affecting major investment decisions. Seems like it tariffs remain this big question mark. Yeah, there’s another piece here just on the impact of Trump’s tariffs on US manufacturing kind of complex, right?

Some suspended, but maybe more action later. Total uncertainty for businesses trying to plan long term and there’s no consensus on whether they even help or hurt manufacturing overall. Some companies holding back investment because they just don’t know what’s coming. Makes sense, but. The flip side is if terrorists do encourage more domestic production, then you need more industrial space warehouses.

Factories, precisely. It sounds like Prologis, despite being cautious overall, is still seeing pretty strong demand from tenants. So maybe link to companies thinking about reshoring or nearshoring could be part of it. Fundamental need for logistics space seems strong even with the broader caution. I. Okay, let’s pivot to office space.

That’s been such a huge story since the pandemic. Definitely. We’ve got an article saying, office attendance, nears post pandemic. High average around 54%, maybe a bit higher in places like Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Austin. Yeah. Seeing higher rates in some of those Sunbelt cities, it seems, and it feels like more companies are pushing for more in-office time.

Amazon, Starbucks. At and t Dell. Yeah. All mentioned as increasing requirements. That’s definitely the trend. A gradual pushback towards the office, which could mean demand for office space starts to stabilize, maybe even tick up in some markets. But then there’s the cost issue again, that piece on construction materials costs climb a 9.7% annualized jump in the first quarter.

Yeah. Driven by lumber, steel, copper. That’s significant has to impact new office builds or major refits, right? Absolutely. Higher costs can mean delays, cancellations, or just rethinking plans altogether. So companies want people back, but building or upgrading the space is getting more expensive. Creates tension.

And we even saw that Caterpillar is calling workers back five days a week. Seems like a broad push across different industries. And it’s not just private companies shaping the office market. The federal government’s making big moves too. Oh yeah. Over 15 million square feet of federal property coming to the market.

That’s huge. That is a massive amount of space. And the key details seems to be where it’s coming from. Mostly lower quality buildings, like two and three star properties. Yeah, a disproportionate share. Which suggests landlords owning those types of buildings might feel the pain more, more vacancy pressure on rents, especially in the DC area where a lot of these cancellations are concentrated.

I. Big impact potentially for that specific market segment. And then there’s this other twist, a new directive telling federal agencies to prioritize suburban locations for new office space. Whoa. Okay. That’s a shift. Real estate pros look for signs of federal offices heading to suburbs. It’s basically reversing the old guidelines that favor downtowns that could really reshuffle the deck.

The federal government is such a huge tenant. Shifting demand out to the suburbs could be a big boost for suburban office markets. May less so for some downtown, potentially very significant, could affect property values, vacancy rates, the whole nine yards in both areas. Okay, so retail and office. Lots of moving parts.

What about the money side? Lending Investment? There’s an article, CRE, lenders Banking on Deal Momentum. Sounds like lenders are feeling a bit more optimistic. Why is that? Seems driven by more deals actually happening late last year and early this year. More transaction activity. Okay, so maybe the log jam is breaking a little.

Seems like it. And the article mentions credit is available, lenders are competing. Those are generally positive signs for market health. Capitals are flowing and that positive feeling extends to multifamily, too. Multifamily buyer and seller sentiment improves in Q1. Yeah, A slight uptick in sentiment for both buyers and sellers for core and value add properties.

Although concerns about interest rates are still there, it says. Absolutely. Rate volatility is still a big factor hanging over things. The piece probably digs into how IRR targets and cap rates are shifting in different markets. The financial metrics investors watch closely. Yeah. And there’s also a piece focusing on Freddie Mac’s small balance loans, emphasizing how important smooth financing is for those smaller multifamily investors.

Crucial part of the housing market. Those smaller landlords definitely. So yeah, pockets of optimism and lending and multifamily. Even with caution elsewhere shows how segmented the market is. It really does. And finally, just to add one more interesting wrinkle, let me guess. The pickleball quartz you saw too why new warehouses include pickleball, quartz, and food halls Uhhuh.

Yeah. It really shows how even industrial real estate is changing, trying to attract and keep tenants by offering amenities just like modern offices do. Exactly. It’s becoming a more competitive market, so landlords are thinking about the employee experience, even in warehouses, making them more than just boxes, pickleball, courts, and warehouses.

Definitely a sign of the time. It really is. Yeah. Reflects that need to make these places desirable work environments. After digging through all this, it’s it’s crystal clear, like you said at the start. The commercial real estate market right now is incredibly complex, deeply interconnected too. Resilience like with boscov’s and retail, but alongside those broader retail struggles and adaptations and huge shifts in office space driven by company policies and government moves.

Then cautious optimism in lending, despite those background worries about inflation and tariffs. A real mix. So as we wrap this up for you, the listener, here’s something to maybe mull over considering all these different paths, retail office lending, industrial amenities. Where might the unexpected opportunities pop up or the unexpected challenges say, in the next year and a half?

Yeah. How does this complicated mix of consumer choices, government actions, and global economics actually play out on the ground in our local economies? Definitely a lot to keep watching. I.

 Welcome to the deep dive. If you’re here, it’s because you wanna cut through all the noise, the endless information, and just get to what matters. Exactly. No endless scrolling needed. We we extract the key insights for you, and this week we’ve got a really interesting mix. It’s all commercial real estate news, focusing on the week of April 11th, 2025.

And our mission, as always is to make sense of it all. Connect the dots between these headlines for you. Give you that clear understanding fast, right? Think of it as, sifting through everything, the tariff talk, economic indicators, big property deals, highlighting the connections. Yeah, the key takeaways.

We’ll touch on potential tariff hikes consumer confidence, some major deals, specific company moves the whole picture. Okay? So let’s dive right in then. Tariffs definitely a huge topic this week. Me too. China reportedly raising tariffs on some US goods to 125%. That’s significant. It really is. And it’s not just a number in a trade report, is it?

No, exactly. How does something like that actually. Hit the commercial real estate world here. What was fascinating potentially is how this could speed up a trend. We’re already seeing companies rethinking global supply chains, right? The whole reshoring or French shoring idea, bringing manufacturing closer.

Precisely. And for our listeners, that could mean more demand for industrial real estate. Factories, warehouses, yeah. Especially in certain areas. Areas with good infrastructure. Transport links. Exactly. But. There’s a flip side to, it could create vulnerabilities if those new supply chains aren’t quite robust yet.

Logistics challenges. Okay, that makes sense. So it’s not just prices going up, it’s potentially reshaping where things get made, stored, moved, yeah. Affecting warehouses, factories, hubs, definitely. And then there was, trump’s proposal about undocumented workers in farming and hotels. That feels quite different.

But I guess it connects back to real estate too. Absolutely. It does. Think about those sectors, agriculture, hospitality, they rely heavily on this workforce. Sure. So if labor availability changes drastically, it hits operational costs, profitability even. So for farms, maybe it changes how land is used or invested in, could do.

And for hotels, especially in certain markets, you might see pressure on wages, maybe even service levels, impacting occupancy if they can’t staff properly. It really shows how policy decisions over here can ripple into property values and operations. Over there. It’s all interconnected. And speaking of hospitality, we also caught wind of the Marriott, CEO.

Sounding pretty bullish. Yeah, that was interesting. Especially with these, potential economic clouds gathering. So what should we make of that confidence? Is it just Marriott or a major player like Marriott, seeing strong demand is definitely positive for hotel owners, for investors, shows, travel’s holding up for now at least.

Sure. But you have to ask, is that optimism across the board or is it. Maybe concentrated like luxury travel, doing well while budget options feel the pinch if inflation keeps biting. Good point. The hotel market isn’t just one thing and need to look deeper. Okay, let’s shift gears some specific deals.

The Sheridan, Dallas, huge hotel here in Texas looking to refinance about $300 million. That’s a big number. It is. What does that refinancing tell us? The scale itself, 300 million for what? Over 1800 rooms. It just highlights the massive financial weight behind these big hotels. So getting the loan is good news.

Yeah. Shows confidence. It could suggest lender confidence. Yeah. Yeah. In that property, it’s management. But it also points to the significant debt loads many large hotels are carrying, which raises questions exactly with economic uncertainty. How sustainable is that? If travel dips or rates stay high, it might maybe create opportunities later if some properties face distress, something for investors to watch.

Interesting perspective. Okay. On the buying side, Singapore’s SE capital, they picked up a hotel in Kagoshima Japan. Always interesting seeing that international capital flow. What’s the significance? Cross-border investment like this often signals where investors see value or potential growth globally.

So SE capital sees something in Japan’s hotel market. Apparently so could be rising tourism or recovering economy. There maybe just better risk adjusted returns compared to elsewhere. Right now it shows how linked these global markets are. Got it. Okay. Back stateside, retail news, big lots. Ah, yes. The comeback story seems like it.

New ownership planning to reopen over 200 stores. That sounds. Bold for brick and mortar these days is bold, but it’s a great example of how established brands, even in discount retail can find new energy. They must see unmet demand. That’s the bet, right? That they’ve found a niche, a strategy to capture shoppers in their sector.

It reminds us the physical retail story isn’t just doom and gloom. There are opportunities if you adapt. And speaking of adapting Ikea finally opening in Dallas proper. Yeah. At the shops at Park Lane, but a smaller concept store that feels key. The smaller format for a giant like Ikea to do that and finally be in the city.

It’s really interesting. It could be a strategic shift, reaching urban consumers who won’t trek out to the huge suburban stores or maybe testing the waters. Offering easier access could be both testing markets, complimenting the big boxes. It shows how major retailers are playing with formats to fit changing habits.

Urban living. That could influence what kind of retail spaces are needed in cities. Definitely could. And sticking with North Texas seems like there’s a real push for transit oriented projects. 2D Yeah. Richardson, Garland, Addison. All promoting sites near the Dart Light rail. I. Using that existing infrastructure seems smart.

It’s a big trend in growing metro areas. Build homes, offices, shops around transit hubs, makes things more walkable, sustainable, and boosts property values nearby. Generally, yes. People in businesses pay for that convenience, that access. It’s a long-term play shaping how the area grows. Okay, let’s zoom out a bit.

Broader economy inflation looks like it cooled slightly. March CPI at 2.4% annually, yes, down a bit from February. That’s, generally seen as good news. People are watching that closely, but there are caveats, right? Always. Housing costs are still sticky, keeping overall inflation up and analysts warned those new tariffs we talked about could push prices back up again.

Encouraging, but potential headwinds remain. Okay. And employment jobless claims actually ticked up. They did 223,000 for the week ending April 5th. A slight increase after things were pretty stable. Not worrying sign well when week isn’t a trend, but it’s something to watch. Could be an early sign of softening.

Oxford economics noted. The labor market’s still okay for the Fed’s current stance, but if claims keep rising, they might rethink things possibly. And they also mentioned a potential link again between tariffs in a weaker job market, which could delay any rate cuts. It’s all tangled together. Trade jobs, fed policy.

We also saw US manufacturing activity dipped in March. Fell back below that expansion line, right? The ISM index back below 50. Yeah. After a couple months above it, that could be another sign of cooling. Maybe some reaction to trade uncertainty. So manufacturers seeing less demand. That’s what an ISM below 50 usually suggests, and that can ripple out.

Affect demand for industrial space. Transport the whole supply chain. Okay, one more broad indicator. CEO turnover apparently up 11% in February, especially in tech and government, nonprofit. Yeah, that’s noteworthy. High turnover at the top can signal uncertainty about the future or big strategic shifts happening.

So maybe challenges or big changes in tech and government, nonprofit sectors could be, and that might indirectly affect their real estate needs, right? Maybe consolidation, rethinking office space. Okay. Let’s zoom back in specific companies, US cellular. Big layoffs announced thousands of jobs. Yeah. Yeah. As that T-Mobile acquisition moves ahead, that’s gotta have real estate fallout.

Oh, definitely. Big mergers often do US cellular will likely need less office space. Other facilities, especially around their Chicago HQ, where their lease is apparently up soon too, shows how corporate moves hit local CRE markets directly. Then there’s Amazon planning another what, $15 billion warehouse expansion.

15 billion. Just underscores the relentless demand for e-commerce fulfillment. It is been driving industrial growth for years and looks set to continue. Seems so though. It was interesting. They reportedly looking for capital partners for some projects, maybe sharing the risk given the huge scale. And the article mentioned potential headwinds from tariffs on construction materials too.

Yeah, another connection back to trade policy impacting costs. Okay. And Dave and Busters. Doing more sale lease backs this year. Leveraging their property assets. Can you just quickly explain what that is? Sale lease back? Sure. Basically, they sell a property, they own one of their venues to an investor.

Okay. And then immediately they lease it back. So they still operate there, but they don’t own the building anymore. Why do that? It unlocks cash tied up in the real estate. They can use that money for their main business, upgrades, expansion, whatever, and they offload being a landlord, maintenance taxes that goes to the new owner.

That gives them financial flexibility. Exactly. The fact they’re doing more suggests they like the strategy. I. Got it. Okay. Let’s look at some regional trends. Dallas-Fort Worth apartment rents, they edged up first quarter they did, but the growth rate slowed and some neighborhoods actually saw rents dip.

So a mixed picture. What’s driving that? It seems like a rebalancing. DFW is still dynamic. Rents are up overall, but slower. Growth, some declines. It suggests all the new supply, the new apartment buildings might be catching up with demand in certain spots. More competition among landlords. Starting to look that way.

Still growing, but maybe moderating a bit. Okay. Meanwhile, down in Houston, an office campus in the energy corridor found a buyer after facing foreclosure. Yeah, that’s interesting. Houston’s office market has had its challenges. So positive sign, maybe it could be a tentative sign, a stabilization, maybe renewed interest in certain parts of the market, but it’s also, a stark reminder of the pressure on some office properties, work patterns changing.

Tenant demand shifting depends on the price it’s sold for the buyer’s plans. Exactly key things to watch there and the build to rent trend. Just keeps rolling, doesn’t it? It really does hit a new high in the US in 2024. Completions, big jump here over year and Texas. DFW Houston leading the Way big time.

Texas is a hotspot. Why is it so popular now? Build to Rent single family homes. Several things. Affordability issues in buying a house. Push people to rent. Some demographics just prefer renting the flexibility and they like new homes, modern amenities, but without the ownership commitment.

Makes sense. And Texas has the population growth and relatively friendly development environment. Perfect storm for bill to rent. Okay. A unique Dallas story. Next, the Neiman Marcus downtown flagship. Ah, the saga continues. Looks like it’s staying open through the holidays, at least the city agreed to accept the land underneath as a donation.

The really interesting arrangement shows that complex interplay, doesn’t it? Iconic retailer city wanting a vibrant downtown, the value of the actual land. So the city taking the land donation means they’re committed to keeping it open. It suggests a commitment from both sides to find a way. Yeah, short term fix, maybe paves the way for something longer term.

Very unique situation. Definitely. Okay. Lastly, infrastructure. North Texas. Moving ahead with Lake Ralph Hall, new Reservoir. Crucial project. Fanning County seems essential for a region growing like North Texas. Absolutely long-term growth needs reliable water. It’s fundamental for housing, for businesses.

Big infrastructure like this supports the future real estate landscape. Make sure the resources are there. Wow. So you really see it when you lay it all out. Even just one week’s news. So many connections. It’s not just isolated deals, is it? It’s the economy policy, consumer shifts, all shaving the market terrorists influencing manufacturing locations impacting industrial space, right?

Economic signals pointing to shifts that affect investment everywhere from hotels to shops, infrastructure paving the way for what comes next. It all weaves together. It really does. Yeah. Underscores why you need to see that bigger picture. Which kind of brings us to the final point. Something for you, our listener, to think about.

Given all this, the tariff uncertainties, the mixed economic signals. Some strength, some weakness. The busy real estate activity like hotel refinancing, retail adapting, TOD focus, build to rent, booming. What are the big opportunities or maybe the biggest challenges for businesses, for communities in the next few months?

Yeah. What do you see emerging from this mix? I. Think about how these trends might connect with things you follow. Tech advancements, changing work and shopping. Consumer shifts maybe towards sustainability. What’s happening specifically where you are. Keep these connections in mind as you navigate your own world.

Thanks for taking this deep dive with us.

 Welcome to the Deep Dive. This week we’re taking a look at the really dynamic world of commercial real estate, specifically the news that broke, during the week of April 4th, 2025. Ah, and what’s really interesting this week is how we’re seeing signs of both continued investment and maybe some potential headwinds on the horizon, right?

We’ve got a collection of reports looking at everything from where investors are putting their money. Despite some well interesting bond market activity to how shifts in consumer spending and new tariffs could impact the retail landscape and even where job growth is actually happening across the country.

Yeah. And plus we’ll explore how some like. Iconic buildings are being reimagined. A few notable shifts in the office space, market, and even the ripple effects of rising insurance costs. Exactly. Our goal here is really to go beyond just the headlines. We wanna connect the dots between these seemingly disparate pieces of information and really understand the underlying trends.

Shaping commercial real estate, and maybe more importantly, we wanna give you a clearer picture of what these developments mean for the broader economy and your understanding of it. Okay. So let’s dive right into where the smart money seems to be going. The investment landscape. It’s, a little counterintuitive perhaps.

How since the Federal Reserve started lowering short-term interest rates last September, the 10 year treasury yield has actually climbed right by early January. It had jumped by over a percentage point from that September high, even though the Fed had cut those short-term rates by the same amount.

What’s going on there? Yeah. It’s a fascinating situation, isn’t it? Yeah. Typically, you might expect long-term rates to follow the trend of short-term rates. But the fact that the 10 year treasury yield has risen despite the Fed’s easing. It suggests a couple of key things.

The market is anticipating. Like what? It often signals an expectation of stronger economic growth in the future. Potentially leading to increased borrowing and thus pushing long-term rates higher, almost independent of the immediate short-term rate adjustments. Okay. So despite this like slightly unusual bond market behavior, the reports we’re looking at indicate that we can still anticipate increased investment in commercial real estate.

What’s fueling that confidence then? The underlying expectation of continued relatively strong economic growth is a pretty significant driver. Uhhuh. Despite some of the challenges we’ll probably touch on later, many investors still see positive momentum in the overall economy. Okay. And additionally, the prospect of ongoing large government budget deficits.

That can sometimes make real estate, particularly income generating properties seem like an attractive investment, maybe as a potential hedge against inflation, right? So for many. These fundamental economic factors seem to be outweighing the concerns related to, bond market fluctuations.

Okay, that makes sense. Let’s move to something that hits a bit closer to home for all of us, how we’re spending our money and what that means for the retail sector. Yeah. The National Retail Federation, the NRF is forecasting retail sales growth for 2025 to be somewhere between 2.7% and 3.7%. Now on the surface, that sounds like growth, which is good, right?

Yeah, it does. But how does that compare to what we’ve seen in recent years? That’s a really crucial question to ask. While you know any growth is generally welcome, this projected range does indicate a potentially more moderate pace of growth compared to the well. Often stronger figures we saw in the immediate post pandemic period.

Okay. Several factors are contributing to this more cautious outlook, and one of the big clouds on the horizon seems to be tariffs. There’s talk of new tariffs potentially leading to higher prices and creating more general economic uncertainty. How significant of an impact could these tariffs really have on what we pay for goods?

Yeah. The expectation is that these tariffs will indeed translate to price increases for. A wide array of consumer goods. And when you combine that with existing inflationary pressures and the fact that many consumers have already started being more selective, kind of trading down to less expensive options, right?

We’ve seen that these new tariffs could really put a squeeze on household budgets and further limit overall consumer spending power, even with a relatively healthy job market. These tariffs are definitely posing a challenge for both consumers and businesses. And we’re hearing about a new set of tariffs announced by President Trump targeting products from China, Canada, and Mexico.

That sounds like it could really disrupt things for retailers, doesn’t it? It certainly could. The retail industry operates on these really complex global supply chains. Yeah. And these tariffs are expected to create disruptions in those established networks. The most immediate effect will likely be an increase in the cost of goods imported from these countries.

Now whether retailers absorb those costs or pass ’em on to consumers, in the form of higher prices, that remains to be seen, but either way, it puts pressure on the industry. Yeah, it sounds like the retail folks aren’t exactly celebrating this news. The NRF and other retail associations have apparently voiced some strong concerns.

What are they particularly worried about? Their primary worry centers on the potential negative consequences for businesses, particularly smaller retailers who often have less leverage in their supply chains compared to, the larger corporations. Makes sense. They anticipate that these tariffs could lead to a decrease in overall sales growth as consumers become more hesitant to make purchases because of rising prices.

And there’s also concern about retaliatory tariffs from other countries, which could further complicate international trade. That knock on effect. It’s interesting though, to note that some retailers seem to have been anticipating this to some extent. The reports mentioned companies like Target and Macy’s have already been taking steps to reduce the reliance on imports from China, so they saw the writing on the wall.

That’s a keen observation. Yeah. Recognizing the potential for increased tariffs, particularly on goods from China. Some of the larger retailers have been proactively diversifying their sourcing strategies. They’ve been exploring alternative suppliers in other countries to lessen their exposure and, mitigate the potential cost increases associated with tariffs on Chinese imports.

Yeah, it’s a strategic move really to try and build more resilient supply chains. Smart. Okay. Let’s switch gears now and talk about where people are finding work. We’ve heard a lot about the Sunbelt being a major hub for job growth since the pandemic began. Is that still the dominant trend? The data definitely confirms that initial trend.

Yeah. The Sunbelt region, states like Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, they did experience the most significant surge in job creation in the five years following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Remarkably, these four states alone accounted for almost half of all the new jobs added across the entire nation between February, 2020 and February, 2025.

Wow. Almost half. That’s a pretty significant concentration of job growth in just one region, but the reports suggest that this growth might be starting to spread out a bit more now precisely. While the Southern and Western states continued to show strong job growth in 2024, the rate of that growth has moderated somewhat.

Okay. And what’s interesting is that. We’re seeing more widespread job creation across other regions of the country too. So including the Northeast, the Midwest, and even states like Louisiana. It suggests a broader recovery and expansion across different economic areas. That’s good to see other parts of the country participating more in job growth.

The report specifically highlights New York’s job market recovery as being quite notable. What’s behind that? Positive trend there. Yeah. New York’s recovery has indeed been impressive. It ranked sixth nationally in terms of the percentage increase in jobs, and second in just the sheer number of net new jobs added.

Wow. A key engine driving this resurgence has been the professional services sector that’s seen significant growth in hiring within the state, so areas like finance. Tech consulting, legal services. Okay. On the other hand though, it seems like the federal government job market has seen a bit of a downturn.

Federal government payrolls are down and the District of Columbia has been particularly affected. What’s the story there? Since February of last year, federal government payrolls have decreased. By about 1.5% nationwide. And the District of Columbia, with its, high concentration of federal agencies and employees has experienced a more pronounced impact from these job cuts.

Yeah. This could be attributed to various factors, maybe budget adjustments. Shifts in government priorities, or even the sort of long-term effects of remote work policies that were put in place during the pandemic. Okay. Let’s move on to something a little different, the realm of experiential retail.

There’s this company called Level 99 that’s expanding nationally, and it sounds like it offers a pretty unique entertainment experience. What can you tell us about them? Yeah. Level 99 is an intriguing newcomer in the entertainment industry. They’re focused on creating these immersive social entertainment experiences that go beyond, traditional offerings like movie theaters or arcades.

Their concept centers around really large venues. We’re talking over 45,000 square feet, ah, capacity for over a thousand players at a time. Wow. Filled with interactive challenge rooms, and it’s all complimented by a full service bar and restaurant. They have ambitious plans looking to open around four new locations annually.

Their fifth location is actually set to open at Disney Springs in Florida, interactive challenge rooms in a massive space. That sounds like a significant departure from the usual entertainment options. What kind of demand are they hoping to tap into? They’re aiming to capitalize on the increasing consumer desire for more active and engaging entertainment experiences.

Instead of just passively consuming entertainment. Guests at level 99 pay for a block of time to explore the venue and participate in a really wide range of mental and physical challenges. It’s designed to be very social and interactive, encouraging, collaboration, and a bit of friendly competition.

Interesting concept. Now let’s take a look at the office space market. We’re seeing some notable moves from some major companies. Wells Fargo, for instance, is planning to vacate its downtown Fort Worth Power. Where are they planning to relocate? So Wells Fargo’s plan is to move into a new mixed use development called the offices at Clear Fork.

The move is anticipated in 2026 when the project’s finished. Okay? But interestingly, they are also in the process of building a really substantial office campus out in Irving, Texas that’s expected to house around 4,000 employees. 4,000. Wow. Yeah. So it appears they’re strategically shifting their office footprint within the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.

Okay. And we’re also seeing that LegalZoom is looking to sublease its office space in Austin, Texas. That seems like a pretty significant change for them. What’s driven that decision? LegalZoom’s move to sublease their Austin office space. It’s part of a broader strategic realignment of their operations.

This includes closing a regional hub in Texas and opening a new facility out in California. So it’s really clear illustration of how companies are reevaluating their office space needs and adopting more flexible work models in the post pandemic environment. Many are just finding they need less traditional office space than they did before.

Yeah, that trend continues. Speaking of Austin, there’s some interesting data emerging about the apartment market there, and also in San Antonio, it seems like the demand for new apartments is currently strongest in the suburban areas. That’s right in the central Texas region. So covering both Austin and San Antonio, new apartment buildings located in suburban areas are experiencing faster lease up rates compared to those in the downtown course.

Downtown Austin, despite often featuring, high-end amenities and premium pricing is actually seeing slower absorption rates and increasing vacancy in its newly constructed apartment inventory. But it sounds like downtown San Antonio’s apartment market is performing differently. Yes.

Interestingly, the multifamily market in downtown San Antonio is actually demonstrating stronger performance in terms of how quickly new units are being leased compared to its suburban areas. Oh, interesting. This suggests maybe a different dynamic in renter preferences there with downtown living, holding a stronger appeal in San Antonio than perhaps in Austin right now.

San Antonio is also undergoing a significant surge in high-rise construction, primarily concentrated downtown. That suggests a long-term belief in the revitalization of the city’s urban center, doesn’t it? Absolutely. The current wave of high-rise development in downtown San Antonio represents the second largest such boom in the city’s history.

Wow. This focus construction activity really reflects a sustained trend of investment and revitalization efforts aimed at enhancing the downtown area as a vibrant destination for residents, workers, and visitors. Okay. We also saw that Foot Locker is making a pretty significant move, leaving its New York City headquarters and heading south to Tampa Bay, Florida.

It sounds like cost considerations are a major factor in that decision. Yeah, foot Lockers specifically cited cost benefits and a desire to refocus on their core retail business as the primary reasons behind their decision to relocate their corporate headquarters from New York City to a smaller and presumably more cost effective space in Tampa Bay.

Ah, it’s another example of a company’s strategically evaluating its real estate needs and making choices based on operational efficiency and, financial. Considerations Right now let’s explore how existing retail properties are adapting to the changing landscape. We’re seeing some really fascinating transformations of historic department store buildings.

The Mazen Blanche in New Orleans is one example. What’s become of that iconic structure? The Mazen Blanche Building. Yeah. A historically significant department story in New Orleans. It’s undergone a remarkable adaptive reuse project. It’s been beautifully restored and reopened as a Ritz-Carlton hotel.

Oh wow. Yeah. It’s a prime example of how these large, often architecturally significant retail spaces can be creatively reimagined and given a new purpose in a completely different sector, really contributing to the revitalization of urban areas. That’s great to see On a well, somewhat less positive note for a longstanding brand, Huns has filed for bankruptcy.

What are their plans for the future? Yeah. Hooters has indeed filed for bankruptcy protection and is planning to transition towards a franchise focused business model. Okay. The strategic shift is intended to address their current financial challenges and also to adapt to evolving consumer preferences within the casual dining sector.

By emphasizing franchising, they likely aim to reduce their direct operational costs and leverage the local market knowledge and investment of franchisees. Makes sense. It seems like even convenience stores are evolving beyond just being a quick stop for gas and snacks. They’re increasingly expanding their food service offerings and even their store sizes.

That’s a key trend we’re observing. Yeah. Convenience stores are increasingly positioning themselves as a kind of go-to destination for fresh ready-made meals. They’re investing in expanding their kitchen facilities and store layouts to accommodate more extensive food preparation and offerings.

They’re really aiming to capture the growing consumer demand for convenient and maybe higher quality food options on the go. And even a retail giant like Walmart is getting more involved in this space with plans to open or remodel a significant number of fuel centers across its network. That sounds like it could create some serious competition for traditional convenience stores.

It doesn’t need. Walmart’s increased focus on its fuel centers, including both developing new locations and renovating existing ones. It signals a growing level of competition within the convenience retail sector. I. Particularly in areas like fuel and potentially prepared food and convenience items too, right?

Their scale and existing customer base give them a pretty significant competitive advantage there. No doubt. We’re also seeing a shift in the amount of available retail space, particularly in those large like anchor size locations. It sounds like there’s been a noticeable increase in vacant big box stores.

What’s driving that trend? Yeah. The amount of available retail space in those larger anchor tenant size boxes has definitely increased over the past year. This is largely a result of recent store closures by several major retailers. Okay. Currently, neighborhood and power centers, which typically rely on these larger anchor stores to draw traffic, are experiencing the most significant impact from these closures and the resulting decrease in demand for those large bases.

Let’s touch on some of the new development projects that are in the pipeline. Collin County and North Texas continues to experience significant growth and there’s a 42 acre mixed use development planned in Lucas. What can you tell us about that? Yeah. This development in Lucas really underscores the ongoing expansion in the suburban areas of North Texas, right?

The 42 acre project is planned to be anchored by a Tom Thumb grocery store, and it’ll also include a mix of restaurant and retail spaces as well as a community park. With construction slated to begin later this year. It’s a clear indicator of the continued investment in growth in these rapidly developing communities north of Dallas.

Okay. Fort Worth is also seeing its share of new development activity. Transwestern is planning a 10 acre mixed use project there. What are the details on that one? Transwestern’s plans for a 10 acre mixed use development in Fort Worth, which will incorporate both residential and retail components. It signifies continued development momentum in that part of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Uhhuh.

These types of projects aim to create more dynamic and walkable, urban or suburban environments, combining living and commercial spaces. And even with some of the potential economic uncertainties we’ve discussed, San Antonio seems to have a number of significant development projects underway. Still that’s accurate.

Yeah. San Antonio is currently experiencing considerable development activity across various sectors, so industrial facilities, multifamily residential complexes, mixed use developments. This suggests a sustained level of confidence in the region’s long-term growth prospects, and a continued flow of investment despite potential broader economic headwinds.

Okay, finally, let’s discuss an issue that’s directly impacting commercial property owners. The rising cost of insurance. It sounds like lenders are increasingly requiring what’s called force placed insurance. What exactly does that entail? Yeah. The increasing cost of insurance are becoming a really significant concern for commercial real estate owners Nationwide.

Lenders are increasingly requiring this force placed insurance right, which is coverage. The lender purchases on behalf of the borrower when the borrower’s own insurance coverage lapses. Or maybe doesn’t meet the lender’s specific requirements. Yeah. The critical issue here is that this forced placed insurance can be significantly more expensive, sometimes several times the cost than the insurance a borrower could get independently on the open market.

Oh, yeah. So this adds another layer of financial strain for property owners, particularly those already dealing with debt service and other rising operating expenses. So to bring it all together, you’ve seen this week how we have this interesting duality, strong investment activity persisting alongside growing concerns about consumer spending, especially with the potential impact of new tariffs.

Uhhuh Joe growth, while still robust in the Sun, bill is showing signs of broader distribution across the country, and the retail and office sectors are clearly in a state of. Constant evolution. Yeah. From the emergence of these immersive entertainment concepts to the creative reuse of historic buildings and even the transformation of your local convenience store, and we can’t overlook the added financial pressures coming from tariffs and escalating insurance costs.

And what’s particularly striking is how interconnected all these factors really are. The investment landscape is influenced by expectations of economic growth. Which in turn is heavily reliant on consumer spending. Yeah. Shifts in job markets, impact where people live and work, which then affects the demand for both residential and commercial real estate.

And these large scale economic trends are playing out in very tangible ways. From the closure of a major retailer to the opening of a new mixed use development in a growing suburb. Considering these really diverse and sometimes well contradictory trends from massive institutional investments to individual store closures and the impact of both national economic policies and very local development projects.

What do you think is the single most significant force that will shape the future of commercial real estate in the coming year? That’s a big question. It is, and perhaps more importantly for us as individuals. How might these ongoing shifts ultimately reshape the communities we live in and the daily lives we experience?

It certainly gives you a lot to consider. Thanks for taking this deep drive with us.

 Hey. Yes. Welcome back. Today we’re gonna be, uh, taking a pretty deep look in the US commercial real estate market. Mm-hmm. Uh, using the MSCI real assets. Okay. US Capital Trends report Yeah. For February, 2025. Um, and we’re gonna be looking at it kind of through the lens of some analysis done by JP Morgan.

Okay, great. So, sounds good. Um, yeah, our, our sort of mission for this deep dive is to, uh, yeah, really pull out the key insights from this report, uh, so you can get a really clear understanding of what’s going on in the market, uh, um, without having to like wade through a lot of data. Yeah. Makes sense. So, uh, yeah, think of it as your, uh, your quick route to being really informed That’s cool.

About the CRE landscape. Cool. Um, jumping right into it, uh, the total sales volume. Okay. In US commercial real estate for February, 2025, hit $26 billion. Okay. Um, that’s, you know, pretty, pretty notable. 23% increase compared to, uh, the 21.1 billion that we saw in February of last year. Big jump. So, um, yeah. You know, at first glance it looks like kind of a big jump, right?

It does. Uh, but maybe we should dig into a little bit about what makes up Yeah. That 26 billion, let’s unpack that a little bit. Yeah. Because, uh, you know, a big thing that the report points out is, uh, these things called entity deals. Okay. Um, which totaled $4 billion in February, 2025. Mm-hmm. Um, and what’s interesting is there weren’t any in the same month last year.

Entity deals. Yeah. Yeah. Um, so for those of us who maybe aren’t super familiar with, uh, all the ins and outs of CRE Sure. Uh, why should we be paying attention to these when we’re trying to kind of gauge the temperature, right? Of like the commercial real estate asset market? Yeah. So, you know, that’s a really good question and it’s a really important distinction because when we’re typically talking about CRE transactions, we’re talking about.

Uh, individual properties like office buildings, right. Retail centers being bought and sold. Right. Um, but entity deals, um, often involve the sale of like a whole company or a large collection of properties. Yeah. Under like a single corporate structure. And these can happen, you know, as a result of, uh, you know, company strategies mm-hmm.

Mergers and acquisitions. Ooh. So, um, you know, whereas a regular sale Yeah. Would tell us about demand for like a certain type of building. Yeah. You know, entity deals might just reflect a company like restructuring its holdings. Okay. Which doesn’t necessarily mean that more people wanna buy office buildings.

I see. So to really get a clear picture of how individual properties are trading. Right. You know, analysts often separate these out. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah. It’s like a, yeah. Like the difference between looking at how many individual cars were sold versus the sale of a whole like rental car company.

Right. Exactly. Right. Yeah. Yeah. So if we take that $4 billion in entity deals out of that February 20, 25 figure, yeah. What does the year over year growth and transaction volume look like then? Yeah, so when you exclude those entity deals, uh, the year over year growth comes down to a more modest. Okay. But still positive.

Yeah. 4.1%. So this really highlights for you. Yeah. You know, why it’s so important to look beyond just the, you know, the top line numbers to understand the real kind of, uh, dynamics that are happening. Yeah, absolutely. It’s about kind of like peeling back the layers and seeing what’s really happening under there.

Yeah. Um, so the report also mentions, uh, something that’s maybe not always the most, uh. You know, eye catching headline, but Right. Important nonetheless, which is revisions Yeah. To data from previous months. Yeah. Um, it seems like those initial numbers we see aren’t always totally set in stone. That’s right.

And that’s actually a pretty normal part Yeah. Of how market data gets reported. Okay. You know, initial figures are often based on early information mm-hmm. And they get refined as more complete data becomes available. Yeah. So what this report shows is like. Modest upward revisions for recent months. Okay.

Which generally suggests that the initial picture was maybe a little bit understated. Okay. Uh, are there any specific revisions that sort of jump out at us? Yeah, so the transaction volume for January, 2025. Uh, again excluding entity deals. Right. Saw a pretty big upward revision of 12.6%. Wow. Um, so that brings the total for January to $32.6 billion, which is a pretty robust 20.3% increase.

Yeah. Compared to January of last year. Wow. Okay. Um, interestingly, the figures for December and November, 2024 are now pretty much finalized with less than a 1% upward revision. Okay. So it seems like the more recent the data Yeah, the more it’s subject to change. For sure. For sure. Um. Okay. So let’s take a step back and look at kind of the bigger picture.

Okay. Um, how does what we’re seeing in February and the beginning of 2025 sort of stack up against Yeah. The trends we saw? Yeah, good. Quickly at the end of last year, um, so according to MSCI, real assets, uh, the fourth quarter of 2024 showed a really, really strong Okay. Surge in US transaction volume, excluding entity deals.

Okay. Um, with a notable 47.5% year over year growth. Wow. That’s a, the big jump. That’s a huge jump. Yeah. Um, and the report mentions that. This aligns with what some of the big CRE service companies were reporting. That’s right. Like, does that Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. JP Morgan highlights that revenue reports from companies like JLL Okay.

Indicated a similar, uh, strong performance in their business segment. Yeah. Uh, with JLL reporting a plus 51% year over year increase. Okay. So it sounds like. And so that kind of agreement across different sources makes the data seem Yeah. It really strengthens the credibility Yeah. Of the MSCI data. Okay, cool.

So a strong finish to 2024. Yeah. Um, now bringing it back to the start of this year. Yeah. Um, the report gives us an initial year to date growth figure. Right. For January and February of 2025. Right. What’s that looking like? So based on the data we have for the first two months, uh, the initial year to date growth comes in at plus 13.2%.

Okay. Um, so that’s a positive start, but yeah, it is important to keep in mind those historical upward revisions. Right, right. Those adjustments. Yeah. Um, I think the report mentioned a, a potential 30% upward swing between the initial and the finalized figures. Yeah, that could, I’m really, that could really change things.

Yeah. Yeah. If we just apply like a 1.3 x multiplier mm-hmm. Like the report suggests based on historical patterns. Yeah. Um, the year to date growth for January and February could potentially jump to around plus 37.3%. Wow. Okay. Year over year. Um, and similarly, February’s growth excluding entity deals might have been closer to plus 35.3%.

Yep. Year over year. Yeah. Now this is just a projection, right. Based on past trends. Got it. So it’s something to watch. Yeah, for sure. As more finalized data comes out. Okay. So the, the initial 13.2 is good news, but the reality could be, could be even better. Much, much stronger. Yeah. Um, now JP Morgan also offers their own kind of take on this, right.

Um, mentioning their internal models Yeah. For revenue growth in CRE service companies. Right. Um, what are they anticipating? So their internal models are projecting a more conservative plus 12% year over year growth. Yeah. In global capital markets revenue for those companies. Okay. In the first quarter.

Right. Um, they point out that this is a global figure, right? So it could be affected by slower activity in regions outside the US Yeah. And also by some, you know, one-off items in the financial reporting. Right. But, uh, it’s like a slightly more cautious. Outlook, but Yeah. Still in positive territory. Yeah.

Yeah. The report specifically says that they’re no less encouraged. Okay. By the initial US transaction data. Yeah. Even though they have that more, you know, tempered global forecast. Yeah. It sounds like they’re acknowledging the strong US data. Yeah. But they’re also kind of tempering it with the broader global picture.

Exactly. Exactly. And they also include, yeah, a really interesting real world anecdote. Yeah. Um. About a recent breakfast with C-B-E-C-E-O, Bob Tic. Oh, okay. That sounds like it could offer some Yeah. Interesting. On the ground. Yeah, exactly. Insights. Yeah. So he indicated that he’s seeing a narrowing of the bid ask spread in the capital markets.

Okay. Which basically means that the difference between the price sellers want for properties, right. And what buyers are willing to pay is getting smaller. Okay. Um, and this is often a sign that, you know. More deals are likely to happen. Think so because buyers and sellers are kind of finding common ground.

Yeah. That’s a really positive sign. Yeah. Suggesting that some of that uncertainty that we’ve been seeing, right. Is starting to maybe resolve a little bit. Absolutely. And maybe even more noteworthy was his comment about interest rates. Okay. He suggested that interest rates are appearing to be less of an obstacle to transactions.

Okay. And he even indicated that the market could potentially absorb. Wow. A 10 year treasury yield. Okay. Climbing up to 5%. That’s pretty significant. Yeah. That’s a big statement. Yeah. You know, it implies that there’s a greater willingness and ability for both buyers and sellers, right, to make deals. Even if rates are a bit higher than we’ve seen recently.

It seems like the market might be. Kind of adjusting Yeah. Finding its footing in this new rate environment. Yeah, for sure. And you know, hearing this kind of sentiment from someone like A-C-B-E-C-E-O Right. Who has, you know, direct insight into the market Right. Really adds a valuable like qualitative layer Yeah.

To all the quantitative data we’re seeing in the report. Yeah, for sure. Okay. So we’re seeing some generally positive signs in the overall transaction. Volumes. Yeah. Um, we’re hearing some encouraging things from industry leaders. Yeah. Uh, but let’s break down that February, 2025 transaction volume by specific.

Property sector. Okay. Um, were there any surprises in terms of like, which property types saw the most activity? Yeah, there were definitely some interesting dynamics at play. Okay. And likely some surprises. All right. Let’s go through ’em one by one. Okay. Uh, which one saw the biggest jumps in transaction volume?

So leading the way by a pretty big margin was the retail sector. Yep. Uh, which. Posted a pretty remarkable plus 105% year over year growth. Wow. Okay. Um, and then following that, uh, maybe surprisingly, was the office sector with a substantial plus 55.2% increase. Wow. You know, this really challenges the narrative Yeah.

Around these sectors. Yeah. You know, it suggests that there’s still considerable activity Yeah. And maybe even some renewed interest in these areas. Wow. So retail more than doubled. Yeah. And office, which has kind of been, you know, really scrutinized lately. Yeah. Saw a huge jump. Huge jump. That’s, that’s pretty unexpected I think.

Yeah. For a lot of people, for sure. Um, what about the other property types? Yeah, so hotels also showed really healthy growth at plus 20.2%. Okay. Um, apartments saw more modest increase of 6.7%. Okay. Um, and then bringing up the rear was the industrial sector. Okay. With a very, very slight. Plus 0.5%. It’s a real mix there.

Yeah. Um, it seems like the story of struggling retail and office Yeah. Might be shifting. It might be, at least in terms of transaction activity. Yeah. Um, and industrial, which has been, uh, you know, such a strong performer. Right. Uh, you know, really didn’t grow that much, not so much in February. Yeah. Um, so that’s kind of a.

You know. Interesting. Yeah. It underscores the nuanced Yeah. Nature of the market. Yeah. You know, we can talk about broad trends in CRE, but the actual performance mm-hmm. Can be very different. Yeah. Depending on the specific type of property. Right. Okay. So we’ve looked at the volume of transactions. Yeah.

Let’s turn our attention to pricing, specifically cap rates. Okay. Uh, what did the report tell us about? Average cap rates in February, 2025. So the average cap rate for all CRE transactions in February was 6.53%. Okay. Um, and that’s a very, very slight increase. Yeah. Of three basis points compared to the previous month.

Okay. And remind us again what a basis point is. Yeah. So one basis point is one, 100th of a percentage point. Okay. So it’s a very small change. Tiny, tiny change. Yeah. Um, and what about the cap rates for assets that actually traded in February? Yeah. Broken down by those individual property sectors. Sure. So looking at the average cap rates specific for assets transacted in February.

Yeah. We see, um, office cap rates average 7.72% Okay. Which was an increase of 12 basis points month over month. Okay? Um, industrial cap rates came in at 6.15%, showing a tiny decrease of three basis points from January. Right? Uh, retail cap rates. Average 7.16% up by five basis points month over month. Okay. Um, apartment cap rates were at 5.3 B percent.

Okay. Reflecting a decrease of 10 basis points compared to the previous month. Okay. And finally, hotel cap rates averaged 8.44%. Okay. Which was an increase of 18 basis points month over month. Wow. So we’re seeing some movement in both directions here. Yeah, for sure. Um, you know, the increases in office and hotel Yeah.

Along with the decreases in apartment and industrial mm-hmm. Uh, seem to kind of reflect those, you know, differing levels of demand. Yeah, yeah. Risk in those markets. Yeah. And that jump in hotel cap rates is pretty notable. Yeah, it is. Yeah. And the slight increase in retail cap rates mm-hmm. Despite the strong transaction volume growth in that sector.

Yeah. Is another interesting thing to think about. Yeah, for sure. You know, it suggests that while more retail properties are trading Yep. Pricing might be adjusting a bit. Okay. And then on the other hand, the continued compression Yeah. In apartment cap rates mm-hmm. Could signal, you know, continued strong investor demand in that sector.

Okay. Great. Um, so to kinda summarize everything we’ve covered today, yeah. February, 2025 saw a big overall increase Yeah. In commercial real estate sales volume. It did. Um, but that was really driven by. Those entity deals. Yeah. When we look at just the transactions of individual assets, right. Uh, the growth was more.

Modest, but still positive. Yeah. Um, and I think what’s really fascinating is that the revisions of the data from previous months Yeah. Suggest that those positive trends might actually be even stronger. That’s than what was initially reported. It’s very possible. Um, and then we saw a real mix across the different property sectors.

Yeah, for sure. Uh, retail and office led the way. Yeah. In terms of that year over year transaction volume growth. Yeah. Which is a surprise to some. Yeah, I think so. Given, you know, the recent conversation around those sectors. Yeah, for sure. And then cap rates showed, you know, yeah. Some adjustments, varying adjustments across the different sectors.

Yeah. Which gives us kind of a glimpse into how investors are, right. Viewing those different property types. Exactly. Um. I guess, you know, taking all of this together and considering these trends. Yeah. Um, especially that narrowing bid ask spread, and the suggestion that interest rates might be less of a barrier than we thought.

Right. Um, what does this tell us about where the US commercial real estate market is headed? Yeah, that’s the big question. Yeah. Right. What should we all be thinking about? You know, this data, along with the insights from industry leaders makes you wonder, are we seeing a real shift? Yeah. In market sentiment and activity.

Yeah. You know, that increased willingness to transact, even with some adjustments in cap rates, right. Suggests that maybe there’s a rise in confidence. Okay. Um, but you know, you have to look beyond. Yeah. Just. Transaction volume and cap rates. Right. To really understand what’s going on. Mm-hmm. You have to look at like the underlying health of each sector.

Yeah. Things like occupancy rates. Okay. Rent growth. Mm-hmm. And the overall economic conditions Yeah. That are driving demand for different types of commercial space. Yeah. Um, you know, so. What other unexpected factors might emerge Yeah. In the coming months. Yeah. That could either boost or, you know, slow down this apparent increase in activity.

Right. That’s the big picture to keep in mind. Yeah. Some things to think about. Yeah. Awesome. Well thanks for, uh, walking us through all that. Yeah, of course. Really appreciate it. Happy to do it. And uh, yeah, we’ll be back next week with another deep dive. Sounds good.