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Be the first to learn about lucrative commercial real estate investment opportunities in the DFW market pre-vetted by our CRE experts!

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Be the first to learn about lucrative commercial real estate investment opportunities in the DFW market pre-vetted by our CRE experts!
Welcome to the Deep Dive. This is the show crafted for you, the listener who really wants to get straight to the point, cut through all the noise, and will instantly grasp what matters most. That’s right. Today we’re doing a special deep dive looking at commercial real estate news from the week of July 4th, 2025.
Our mission simple. We want to arm you with the key insights from the latest reports, help you get informed fast. Without getting lost in all the data. Absolutely. And it’s a complex landscape out there right now. It really is. And this deep dive is brought to you by Eureka Business Group.
They’re your go-to commercial real estate broker specializing in retail right here in Dallas-Fort. Worth a very dynamic market. Exactly. And the insights we’re about to unpack, they’re especially valuable for understanding those bigger market forces that, really influence local opportunities, particularly for retail clients.
Yeah, definitely. And to really get a handle on commercial real estate, you often have to start with the the fundamentals. The residential housing market is a big one. The foundational, absolutely. If you look at the home price index data, it tells well quite a story, continuous growth across the US basically from 2010, right Through 2024.
Continuous growth, but having things cooled off a bit recently. Yes and no. We saw these huge annual change peaks, around 2013, and then again really sharply in 20 21, 20 22. We’re talking growth. Over 20% annually. Wow. Yeah. But more recently it has stabilized. It’s now sitting between say, zero and 4% annual change for 2023 and 2024.
Okay. Zero to 4%. That sounds maybe manageable on the surface, but I keep hearing homeowner costs are actually higher than ever. How does that work? That’s the critical piece. So while the rate of price increase has slowed the actual cost for homeowners, they’ve hit record highs by 2025. Coke. It’s not just the median sales price, though.
That’s part of it. A huge driver has been the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates. Oh, the rates. Exactly. And that of course pushes up monthly mortgage payments significantly. Yeah. Especially since, post 2020. So what’s the knock on effect for, say, a retail business owner in DFW trying to figure out their customers less spending money.
It’s definitely impacting discretionary income. Yeah. But it’s also reshaping what people prioritize spending on. We’re seeing a shift, maybe subtle, but it’s there. How more focus on essential services, value shopping, maybe more localized, convenient shopping rather than say big luxury purchases or things you can put off.
Interesting. So affordability is really changing behavior. It is, retailers really need to think about what prime location means now. It’s not just foot traffic, it’s also about the purchasing power in that specific area and those shifting consumer needs. That makes a lot of sense. And that theme of cost pressure and changing priorities, it leads us right into the corporate world, doesn’t it?
Companies rethinking their offices. Space. Oh, absolutely. It’s a huge focus. We’re seeing really fundamental shifts in how companies approach occupancy planning. It’s way beyond just square footage now. More strategic. Definitely. The data on the top objectives for corporate real estate planning in 2025.
It’s very telling. Optimized portfolio just shot up to the number one spot. Number one. Yeah. For 73% of respondents, that’s a big leap from third place just last year. Okay. And right behind it. Reduced cost to portfolio is still very strong at 71%. Then you’ve got things like improved space, data accuracy at 68%, improved reporting at 64%.
It’s all about efficiency. Data efficiency and cost. Sure. But then you also hear about companies wanting people back in the office more. How do those things fit together? Seems a bit contradictory. It does seem that way, but it’s about finding a new balance. Look at the new objectives popping up in the top 10 for 2025.
Okay. What? Increase employee presence onsite is there at 59%. But also reduce environmental impact is now in the top 10. 40%. Interesting. So it’s not just cost cutting, right? It’s evolving. Yeah. Companies are trying to figure out the right mix and the data on optimization. Progress shows this.
About 41% have already downsized. They’re back to business as usual in that smaller footprint. Okay. But another 32%, they still plan more downsizing. Only 13% actually plan to increase space, and 14% made no changes. So downsizing is still very much the trend. What does that mean for traditional offices and the ripple effect on shops and restaurants nearby?
It’s profound. This whole hybrid work model becoming mainstream and the downsizing that goes with it, it’s really changing urban centers. Yeah, the idea of the, the nine to five downtown office being the only hub that’s fading. So where’s the activity moving? It’s decentralizing. We’re actually seeing some suburban areas.
Places may be previously overlooked, becoming unexpected retail hotspots. Services are falling the workers closer to home where they spend their hybrid work days. So the demand shifts geographically. Exactly. Which naturally leads to the rise of flexible office solutions. It’s a direct response from the market.
Companies want agility the market provides. Makes sense. Precisely. Examples like Desk Pass in Los Angeles, they offered, a whole range of options. Shared spaces like central office, downtown LA or Indie Desk. Yeah. But also private office rooms and the pricing reflects that flexibility.
Maybe $20, $45 a day, something like that. No long-term lease needed. That flexibility is key. So for our listeners, maybe thinking about retail and DFW, how does this desk pass example translate if people aren’t downtown five days a week? Where do you put your coffee shop? That’s that’s the big question for retail planning now, isn’t it?
If your target customer is only in the downtown office tower, two, maybe three days a week the demand for that quick lunch spot right there, it naturally drops. Okay. But those employees. They still need coffee, lunch, maybe dry cleaning, a gym closer to home on the other days. The days they work remotely.
Exactly. So this creates what you might call hyper-local retail opportunities. Think about suburban areas, maybe Frisco or Plano, suddenly seeing a lunch rush they never had before, or neighborhood centers becoming busier during the day. So for investors, it’s about mapping not just homes, but where people work remotely.
Precisely. Those residential adjacent commercial spots. They become increasingly valuable. The daily foot traffic is shifting. It’s it’s a whole new map. Fascinating. Okay, let’s shift gears a bit. Moving away from the national picture. Let’s talk Texas. It just keeps coming up in real estate news. It really does strong growth across the board, and one trend that really stood out to me was manufacturing leasing.
That seems. Surprisingly strong. What are you seeing in those numbers? Yeah, the manufacturing leasing numbers are quite striking, especially when you compare regions. The US average, it saw a bit of an increase maybe from around 11% of total leasing in 20 17, 20 19, up to about 13% in 20 22, 20 24. Okay. A small bump nationally.
But Texas, it saw a huge jump in that same period, went from about 18% of total leasing up to a really notable 25%. Wow. 18 to 25%. That’s significant. It really is. Even the southwest region, Arizona and Nevada, they saw strong growth too. Maybe 15% up to 20%. But Texas is is clearly leading the back there.
That’s undeniable growth. But when we say manufacturing, boom, what does that really mean for jobs and subsequently for retail demand? Is it all robots or are we seeing actual population growth tied to this? Especially thinking about DFW? That’s a really important question for understanding the retail side.
Yes, automation is part of modern manufacturing, no doubt. But this surge in Texas. It’s broad. It is creating a significant number of diverse jobs. Okay. Think about chip manufacturers, EV plants, things like that. Choosing Texas. They bring large workforces, engineers, managers, technicians, assembly workers, the whole spectrum.
It’s not just one type of job. Exactly. Yeah. And that direct job growth, it fuels population influx. New people move in, they bring families. That means more demand for everything. Housing, yes. But also grocery stores, restaurants, clothing shops, entertainment. All types of commercial real estate, so it really boosts the entire ecosystem.
Absolutely. It makes places like Dallas-Fort Worth really prime locations for retail development and expansion because you’ve got this consistently growing customer base demanding a full range of goods and services. I. And we can see that population growth playing out very clearly. Looking at the Austin area, for instance, gives us more detail on these trends.
Yeah. Austin’s a great example of that. Sustained Texas growth. The latest Census Bureau data from July, 2023 to July, 2024 shows some interesting patterns. What stands out well in terms of just raw numbers? Nominal change. Leaner added the most people over 7,000. Then Georgetown, round Rock and Austin itself added around 4,000 to 4,600 each.
Okay, so the suburbs are really driving the numbers. Largely yes. Though Austin City still grew, interestingly, a couple places like Buddha and Lakeway saw slight dips. But if you look at percentage change, that often highlights the really fast emerging spots. The smaller bases growing quickly.
Exactly. Dripping Springs grew by almost 17%. Liberty Hill, 50% Lockhart, 11%. Hu over 9%. Even Leander was still up almost 9% Lockhart at 11%. That one jumped out at me too. It’s not a name you always hear in those top growth lists. Yeah. What’s the significance there? Lockhart’s rise is pretty interesting. It climbed into the top 10, fastest growing cities.
Number seven in 2024. It was ranked much lower just back in 2021. So it signals that decentralization we were talking about precisely. And you see the flip side too. The city of Austin itself, it’s ranking among the fastest growing cities, has generally declined over that same 20 21, 20 24 period. Yeah.
Growth is clearly spreading out. What’s the takeaway for someone looking at retail opportunities, maybe even thinking about DFW? By analogy? The takeaway is that these strong sustained growth patterns across Texas cities, not just in the big core cities, they underscore this fundamental demand for retail infrastructure.
I. Shops, services, restaurants, follow people. It provides really valuable context for investing or developing anywhere in the broader Texas market, including DFW. It shows the growth engine is strong and it’s creating these vibrant new retail sub-markets in areas that, maybe weren’t on the radar a few years ago.
Okay, that makes sense. Let’s pivot slightly to investment strategy itself. Opportunity zones, they’ve been around for a bit, known for the tax benefits, but what’s really driving investors to put money there? Is it just the tax break? It’s a great question, gets into investor motivation and the data is well pretty clear on the main driver, which is taxes, about 66%.
Two thirds of investors say tax advantages are their single most important reason for investing in opportunity zones. Okay, so that’s the dominant factor. No surprise, really. Not really, no. It’s a powerful incentive, but it’s not the only factor. Returns come in second cited by about 17% of investors. Still significant, almost one in five.
Yeah. And then social impact is also notable. Around 15%, which reflects, a growing interest in community benefits alongside profit. That’s interesting. The social impact piece. It is. And finally, portfolio diversification’s a smaller factor around 5%. So yeah, it’s a mix, but heavily weighted towards those tax advantages.
So knowing that mix, mostly tax, but returns and impact matter too. How does that help someone looking at, say, our retail development project in an opportunity zone in DFW? Understanding those motivations is really key for putting together a compelling investment strategy or pitch. How knowing tax advantages are paramount helps you frame the financial proposition.
That’s the main language investors are speaking. Gotcha. Lead with the tax benefits. Exactly. But also recognizing that solid returns and positive social impact matter to a significant minority means projects that can deliver on those fronts too. That might attract a wider, maybe more diverse group of investors.
Broaden the appeal. Precisely and remember, these opportunity zones often overlap geographically with some of those growing areas we’ve been talking about. So they could be really circle ground for retail development that serves these new populations while offering those very attractive tax incentives.
It’s a potential win-win that ties it all together nicely. Wow. What a packed deep dive today. We’ve really covered a lot. We certainly have from the national housing market pressures and how that impacts spending to the whole corporate office, rethink and the shift towards, I. Hybrid work. The decentralization trend.
Yeah. And then that incredible manufacturing boom here in Texas, driving population growth, which we saw specifically in places like the Austin area. And finally unpacking what really motivates investors, especially when it comes to opportunity zones. Exactly. Lots of interconnected pieces. Indeed. And maybe a final thought to leave with our listeners.
Something to chew on. Please. Given all these dynamic shifts we’ve discussed, especially this strong population in economic growth here in Texas, combined with these changing work patterns and consumer spending habits, how might all this continue to reshape the very definition of what makes a prime retail location, particularly in markets like Dallas-Fort Worth?
In the, the coming years. Reshaping the definition of prime. That is a great question to mull over as you think about your next moves. Definitely something to consider. Thank you for joining us on this deep dive into the commercial real estate market. We hope these insights were valuable.
And remember, if you need expert guidance navigating this dynamic market, especially for retail opportunities, right here in Dallas-Fort Worth, Eureka Business Group is ready to help you turn these insights into action. Thanks for listening. We’ll see you next time on the deep dive.
** News Sources: CoStar Group
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Be the first to learn about lucrative commercial real estate investment opportunities in the DFW market pre-vetted by our CRE experts!
Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today we’re we’re really gonna cut through the noise in commercial real estate. We’ll be zeroing in on the most important headlines, specifically from June 19th through the 27th, 2025. I’m quite curious myself to see what patterns emerge this week. Yeah, me too. Our mission today, like always, is to pull out those vital insights, maybe some surprising facts.
Basically give you a shortcut to being really well-informed about the critical dynamics shaping commercial real estate right now. Absolutely. And we’ve sifted through quite a stack of diverse sources for this deep dive. Primarily the top 50 commercial real estate headlines, but also some really interesting, very granular Texas focused retail news popped up.
So the goal is to give you a clear, concise picture of where commercial real estate stands today, highlighting key trends. The challenges definitely, but also the opportunities. And we’ll put a special emphasis on the Texas market, which is well thriving and specifically the retail sector There.
Okay, so before we get too deep, is there one big picture takeaway that really jumps out from this latest data? There is, it’s pretty significant. Dallas has officially been ranked the number one commercial real estate market for 2025. And this isn’t just about growth. It’s it’s a powerful signal, really shows how strong economic fundamentals and maybe pro-business policies can reshape market leadership pretty quickly.
Almost like a blueprint for other areas. Wow. Number one, for Dallas. That is a significant shift. Okay, so let’s unpack this further. Let’s dive into the current market dynamics because it feels like we’re seeing a landscape in, active transition. The executive summary from our sources really seems to emphasize that major shifts, clear differences between sectors and certain regions.
Definitely showing strength. Exactly. And what’s fascinating is the contrast. On one side we’re seeing some pretty serious challenges. Commercial mortgage backed security, CMBS delinquencies. They’ve climbed to 11%. That’s the highest since what, 2013? 11%. Wow. Yeah. And then you have these aggressive retail closures.
9,900 business shutdowns reported just in 2024. Plus there’s that that looming $1.5 trillion maturity wall. Essentially, a huge wave of commercial mortgages coming due soon. That’s creating some intense refinancing pressure for property owners. Okay. That 11% delinquency rate and the $1.5 trillion maturity ball that sounds.
Pretty daunting. Is there any genuine counter narrative here? I. Or are we really looking at widespread paint ahead? It’s definitely not a uniform picture of gloom. If you dig a bit deeper, you find some very strong positive indicators too. We’re seeing major transactions like Google committing to that huge 804,000 square foot lease done in Austin.
And there are substantial refinancing deals happening, like $1.2 billion deals. That signals clear institutional confidence, in parts of the market, it’s not a blanket crisis. It’s very specific. Yeah. I see. So despite those significant headwinds, you’re saying there’s still clear institutional appetite in certain segments.
Exactly. While some sectors are definitely struggling, others like industrial are showing incredible resilience. Warehouse lease rates are up. Get this 75.7% over the expiring contracts, 75%. That’s huge. It’s staggering. And the multifamily market seems to be stabilizing. Class A properties hit 95.7% occupancy.
This resilience is an isolated, it’s a key factor driving that stronger performance in certain regions. And speaking of strong performance and resilience, Texas really seems to be leading the charge across all its major metros, doesn’t it? Strong economic fundamentals, the business friendly environment.
It’s clearly supporting that market leadership, but how is Texas managing the statewide trend so consistently, even with all these national pressures? It’s multifaceted, and this brings up an important point about financial pressures and maybe where we might find some. Unexpected recovery signs.
The headline, US commercial real estate credit Pain really caught my eye Distress has reached $116 billion. That’s a 23% increase year over year. Marks the highest level of distress in over a decade. A 23% jump year over year to $116 billion. That’s a massive increase, but does that mean. Entirely new problems are popping up, or is it more like a backlog finally coming into the light?
It’s probably a combination, but the research also suggests a moderation in the rate of delinquency increases. So even as the total numbers keep climbing, the pace might be slowing down just a bit. And what’s really surprising actually, is that. Commercial property deal making seemed to pick up after those Trump tariff announcements.
Interesting. Yeah. We saw a Texas apartment complex financing restart after just a brief pause that really shows the underlying resilience of property owners. They seem to be finding ways to adapt. Push forward even with volatility, right? That’s the bifurcation we keep hearing about, isn’t it? I think CNBC pointed that out.
There’s this clear split in commercial real estate. Some property types, some quality levels are just significantly outperforming others. It’s definitely not one single market. Precisely and reinforcing this kind of selective positive outlook is the Fed’s senior loan officer opinion survey. It showed only 9% of banks actually tightened lending standards back in April, 2025.
That suggests maybe a high probability for property value increases in 2025 despite that tariff volatility. Okay. But we can’t ignore that CMBS delinquency rate still climbing to 11% and the office sector is particularly hard hit accounting for over half of those delinquencies. You mentioned maturity defaults driving a lot of this.
Borrowers struggling to refinance at these higher rates. So if I’m getting this right, it’s not just about empty offices, it’s critically about the financial structure of these properties hitting a wall. That feels like a different, maybe more insidious challenge. Indeed it is. Now, let’s zoom in a bit on the evolving retail sector, because this area is seeing some really dramatic shifts.
That headline, retail closures hit Cyclical High, tells a big story. 9,900 business shutdowns in 2024, and for the first time in several years, closures actually outpaced openings. 9,900 shutdowns. That’s a stark figure. What does this really mean for the overall health of the retail sector? I. It signals a major period of consolidation.
Strategic repositioning, major chains leading the way. JON closing 800 stores. Macy’s, planning 150 closures over three years. Lots of discount retailers scaling back too, yet it’s not all negative. The sources also highlight 7,700 new retail openings announced for 20 24, 20 25. That’s gonna return about 140 million square feet of space to the market.
So while some close others are definitely expanding, or new concepts are emerging to fill those gaps. And we’re seeing a lot of strategic moves too, like consolidations, Kirkland’s, for instance, consolidating its real estate after being bought by Beyond Inc. Some of its locations are even converting into Bed, bath and Beyond home stores.
And other chains like Harris Teeter, Jack in the Box. They’re closing locations, but framing it as part of optimization strategies, it feels like a very dynamic period for retail driven by, consumer behavior shifts and the need for operational efficiency. Exactly. And this leads us right to a crucial focus.
I. The remarkable strength of retail right here in Texas, especially in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Weitzman’s Shopping Center Review. It gives excellent insight here. It shows Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, all maintaining healthy retail occupancy above 90%. Austin’s actually leading the state.
This really highlights how robust local economies are supporting consumer spending down there. What’s truly powerful I think, is that these cities seem positioned to weather any potential economic softening, and they’re doing it from positions of real financial strength, and there was that critical local win that really underscores this resilience.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott vetoed Senate Bill three. That preserved over 8,500 hemp businesses, occupying millions of square feet of retail space. Yeah. Protecting an $8 billion industry in Texas, that feels like a huge save for the retail economy there directly impacting property owners and occupancy.
Absolutely. It’s a perfect example of how local policy can directly shape the commercial real estate landscape, particularly in retail. And we’re also seeing this surging trend of. Service-based tenants in the Texas retail market, these businesses are taking up a larger share of newly leased space. The highest level since 2019, actually, we’re talking fitness centers, healthcare providers, diverse dining options, experiential retail.
It’s a clear shift away from just traditional goods. That shift to service-based retail is absolute vital for property owners to understand, isn’t it for long-term viability. Now, while retail is clearly transforming. Let’s widen our lens again. Let’s quickly touch on some broader market trends that still have significant Texas relevance.
The office market, while still facing those headwinds, is showing some maybe early recovery signs like Trump’s $114 million payoff for his 40 Wall Street mortgage and that San Francisco $177 million office deal. It’s most expensive in three years. Do these scattered winds mean a turning point, or are they just outliers for now?
Probably not a full turning point just yet, but they do signal that high quality, located office assets can still command interest and investment even as the sector as a whole continues to rebalance. We’re also seeing substantial financing and investment activity elsewhere. That $1.2 billion refinancing for the massive DC waterfront development that signals strong institutional appetite for large scale quality projects.
And yeah, $8.6 billion in. CMBS loans are maturing in January, 2025, but extensions are being sought for 85% of them. That shows efforts to avoid default rather than just immediate distress hitting. Okay, so institutions are still willing to commit significant capital when the underlying assets are strong and borrowers are actively trying to manage their debt.
The overall investment outlook seems pretty positive then. Bels is forecasting $542 billion in total US commercial real estate investment for 2025. That’s a massive 39% annual increase, and the US expected to capture the bulk of global CRE investment. That’s a lot of capital potentially flowing in. It is indeed and the multifamily sector.
It continues to benefit from rising demand and falling supply. High mortgage rates are also pushing more people towards renting, which boost the apartment market strength. Plus you have these crucial policy, Vic. Like increased funding for L-I-H-T-C. The low income housing tax credit, which is key for affordable housing and the opportunity zone program renewal, incentivizing investment in distressed communities.
Together, those are driving development of over half a million housing units. Those policy wins are critical for tackling housing supply. Definitely. Now let’s really hammer home Texas’s authority in all this because it’s not just general growth, it’s specific strengths. Dallas’ number one, ranking for 2025, for instance, it highlights that post pandemic retail demand search, sure.
But also an incredible economic recovery, 11.2% employment growth since February, 2020. That’s phenomenal. Shows how quickly a strong market can bounce back. The Texas multifamily market is showing really strong stabilization, occupancy, and stabilized class. A apartments hit 95.7% in May, 2025. That’s the highest since June, 2022.
Very healthy, very attractive for investors on the industrial side. Lone Star electric supply, expanding to Perlin, 114,000 square feet, 75 jobs. Phoenix investors acquired a 1.5 million square foot warehouse in Texas, and maybe more impactful for existing owners. Industrial tenants are facing those substantial rate increases.
We mentioned about 75.7% higher than expiring leases. I. That reflects immense demand and really tight supply. Yeah, absolutely. For office and tech, Google taking the full 804,000 square feet at Sale Tower in Austin is just a massive vote of confidence, both for Austin’s downtown office market and the tech sectors continued presence.
Although it’s worth noting, the federal government did cancel over 35 leases across Texas. That signals some broader space reduction initiatives that even strong markets aren’t totally immune to. A bit of nuance there. Mixed use developments are also thriving. Kaizen starting a $370 million project in Dallas and the construction boom across Texas is just incredible to watch.
Yeah, that $17 billion Samsung semiconductor facility in Taylor, major data center construction all over Dallas-Fort Worth, jcbs, huge 720,000 square foot plant in San Antonio, creating over 1500 jobs. The infrastructure investment supporting all this growth is immense. It really sets the stage for future economic expansion.
Definitely and looking at national trends that still have relevance for Texas, we’re seeing, interestingly, more office space being removed than added first time in over 25 years, about 23.3 million square feet slated for a demolition or conversion versus only 12.7 million of new construction. This net reduction could potentially help future vacancy rates improve by taking older, less desirable inventory offline.
Makes sense. The industrial sector, as we’ve said, continues to be the strongest CRE performer nationally. Benefiting from E-commerce logistics, and alongside that, data centers are seeing just exceptional growth fueled by all the demand for AI computing power. Clear, bright spots. Absolutely. And despite the challenges we discuss in retail, prime space availability remains quite limited nationally.
This is leading to higher asking rents and persistent high demand for those prime locations, which, really highlights the ongoing need for expert local knowledge, like what we focus on in Dallas Fort Worth, to identify and navigate these opportunities where competition is fierce. That’s where local expertise truly shines, doesn’t it?
Knowing exactly where those prime spots are and how demand is shifting on the ground, but on a more challenging note. Nationally record high insurance costs are hitting the entire CRE sector up 40% year over year and 120% since October, 2020. That’s a significant added cost pressure that can really eat into profitability for developers and owners.
It really is, and it’s important to remember too. Small banks hold about 70% of all CRE loans outstanding, so they face continued pressure. Although the Fed stress test indicated they could survive a pretty substantial drop in CRE values. Still, it underscores how systemically important commercial real estate is to the banking sector, particularly those community banks.
And we keep circling back to that $1.5 trillion maturity wall approaching through 2025. It’s just such a massive hurdle out there. However, the data showed retail loans while making up about 26% of newly special service loans are actually showing more resilience. Within the office sector. That’s a key distinction for investors looking for relative stability.
And finally, experts are really emphasizing the critical need for significant investment in climate resilience and cybersecurity for sustained CRE recovery. These aren’t just, nice to haves anymore. They’re becoming essential for long-term viability, for regulatory compliance, and frankly for attracting modern tenants and investors.
So to wrap up this deep dive, it feels abundantly clear that the commercial real estate market is in a period of really active but very differentiated transition. We’ve seen clear winners, especially the Texas markets with Dallas, firmly grabbing that number one national ranking thanks to its unique economic strength.
And it seems proactive policies. Yes, but the challenges are still undeniable, particularly with those CMBS delinquencies and that looming maturity wall. But as we discussed, it’s not really a story of widespread distress across the board. Instead, you have strong institutional capital flows. You have policy support for things like housing and clear sector differentiation, all providing significant opportunities for strategic investors and developers, particularly in high growth markets like Texas.
Absolutely. The picture is definitely nuanced, but the potential is clearly there for those who understand where to look and how to adapt to these evolving trends. So as you, our listener, consider all of this, think about how these macro trends and these micro trends, especially that shifting landscape of retail and the sustained growth here in Texas, how will that shape investment and development decisions in the coming months?
What stands out to you about the unique resilience and the evolving nature of the retail sector, specifically in Dallas-Fort Worth? And how might that inform your next move?
** News Sources: CoStar Group
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Welcome to the Deep Dive. We’re your shortcut really to getting smart on the latest in commercial real estate news for this week, June 20, 20, 25. Today we’re aiming to cut through all the noise. We want to distill the really critical insights and just deliver them straight to you. And we’ve got a laser focus today on the incredibly dynamic commercial real estate market right here in Texas.
That’s right. Specifically, we’re diving deep into Dallas-Fort Worth retail. And this deep dive, just so you know, is brought to you by Eureka Business Group. You’re your trusted authority in commercial real estate brokerage, especially. In the DFW market and we’ve carefully curated quite a selection of top tier articles and some cutting edge research.
The goal here is really to ensure you get a comprehensive but still concise view of the current market conditions. Saves you hours of sifting through stuff yourself. Exactly. It’s about getting to the, the real essence of what’s actually happening on the ground. Okay. Let’s really unpack this then, because what we’re seeing in Texas retail, it isn’t just resilience.
It’s a fascinating study in adaptation. How is a sector that’s facing these national headwinds, closures, rising costs, how is it not just surviving, but in places like DFW actually thriving? That’s really the core question we’re digging into today. So let’s kick off with something genuinely compelling, this remarkable resilience of the Texas retail market.
Despite all the macroeconomic uncertainty we’ve been tracking it really seems to be defying gravity somehow. It does. We’re seeing distinct growth patterns, investor opportunities emerging across key cities. Austin, Dallas, Macallan, Houston. It’s clear Texas continues to stand out. That’s a really crucial observation.
When you hear someone like Kylie Hiller from Cushman and Wakefield highlighting Austin’s retail market a sub 4% vacancy rate. Yeah, that’s more than just a number. It’s basically a flashing neon. Sign for investors, it says, this isn’t just strong, it’s fiercely competitive. Every available square foot is getting snapped up.
It signals well a landlord’s dream, really, and a market that’s ripe for new strategic development. A landlord’s dream. Exactly. And this robust demand, this low vacancy, it isn’t just Austin. This general Texas trend is, I’d say, very much amplified in the Dallas-Fort Worth market. It shows these powerful underlying fundamentals for retail.
That sub 4% in Austin certainly catches the eye. So building on that Texas resilience theme, let’s drill down into Dallas-Fort Worth, the retail landscape there. It seems to have its own unique set of challenges and well triumphs. Are the challenges truly unique or are they mirroring national trends? What’s the real impact of tariffs on DFW retailers?
Is it just noise or are we seeing actual shifts? One key development we are seeing in DFW is retailers getting a clear line of sight on tariffs. Mark Masser, new Mark Chairman mentioned this at Biz Knows DFW Retail Summit. It means businesses can now make more informed decisions sourcing pricing that’s crucial for stability in their supply chain.
Okay, so more clarity there? Yes. But Bob Young of Weitzman also acknowledges there’s still significant uncertainty hanging around. And we’ve even seen some consumer pullback. Remember those US retail sales falling in May, right? I saw there. Yeah. So for retail properties, this adds a layer of complexity.
Reduced consumer spending directly impacts tenant performance, and that in turn hits lease negotiations. Consumer pullback is definitely a worry. But how are DFW retailers specifically? Mitigating that. It feels like despite these headwinds, DFW retail isn’t just surviving, it seems to be capitalizing on some massive opportunities, especially in mixed use.
Look at that huge legacy west acquisition. Oh, absolutely. That legacy West deal, it truly underscores the market’s confidence. The scale of it, 1.15 million square feet mixed use. In DFW, it was acquired for a staggering $785 million Kite Realty and GIC. Wow. And this wasn’t just any deal. It reportedly commanded the highest price ever paid for a mixed use property in the region, highest ever.
That’s the report. So this isn’t just strong investor confidence, it’s like a thunderous vote of confidence in DFWs top tier retail destinations. And these, highly sought after integrated mixed use environments. The fact that a deal like this still commands such a premium. It really speaks volumes about DFWs perceived stability, especially when you consider nationally.
So many CRE loans for just a few years back are now facing refi at much higher rates, a staggering $785 million. So it’s just an eye popping number. But this legacy West deal, it’s not just an isolated event. It feels like part of a much larger DFW growth story unfolding. Definitely. How much of this confidence do you think is fundamentally tied to those big population shifts We’ve been seeing?
If we connect this to the bigger picture, DFWs population growth has notably shifted northward. And that’s fueling the emergence of these billion dollar mixed use projects in suburbs like Frisco and also down in Southern Dallas. These are essentially mini cities that combine. Residential retail office space, all designed to create vibrant communities, right?
We’re talking major developments like a universal resort in Frisco, a $200 million surf resort up in McKinney, a $950 million Kalahari waterpark in Allen, the surf resort in McKinney. Okay? Yeah. And don’t forget, over $8 billion in developments. Planned way up at leak Texoma. Now this rapid expansion, it presents opportunities obviously, but GFFS, Evan Beatty raises a crucial point, which is, can these new greenfield developments, building on previously undeveloped land, can they truly replicate the, let’s say.
The street grid and walkability of older established urban cores like downtown Dallas. That’s a real challenge, creating truly integrated, walkable communities from scratch. That’s a really interesting point. A nearly billion dollar waterpark. It does make you wonder what that says about. Where people are choosing to live and spend their leisure time, doesn’t it, that these huge entertainment anchors are popping up?
Speaking of vibrant communities, we can’t talk DFW growth without highlighting the redbird redevelopment in Southern Dallas. That area of faced disinvestment for years, but Redbird seems to be genuinely transforming it. Oh, it was a remarkable turnaround story for Southern Dallas. Absolutely. The redevelopment of the old 1970s Redbird Mall into the shops at Redbird, that’s been pivotal, changed the whole narrative for the area.
Peter Brodsky’s project exactly. His decision back in 2015 to buy and redevelop that 1 million square foot mall. It truly anchored the area’s revitalization, and now we’re seeing new mixed use. Projects like the $1 billion University Hills development breaking ground nearby a billion dollars there too.
Yeah. This single project alone, 270 acres of homes, 1500 apartments, one and a half million square feet of commercial space. They’re even considering a potential sports stadium. And beyond that specific project, Southern Dallas has seen almost. 50 million square feet of industrial space added since 2020 and a 59% jump in multifamily units.
Wow. 59% development officials in Dallas confirmed there are over 20 projects in the pipeline just for Southern Dallas, as Brodsky himself put it with the right policies and investment. Southern Dallas is becoming a real growth fi for the city, a growth engine. For commercial real estate pros, this area represents a significant opportunity for strategic investment and development right within the DFW market.
Indeed, and this strategic adaptation is clearly vital. Now, while Df W’s story is compelling, it is crucial we understand it within the broader national retail narrative. Absolutely. Because what’s happening nationwide could, either amplify or potentially challenge the local success we’ve just discussed.
Right, and a key development there is the prediction from CoreSite research. They’re forecasting what some are calling a retail apocalypse 2025. They’re predicting up to 15,000 store closures nationally. 15,000. 15,000. That’s a significant 55% increase over 20, 20 figures. This isn’t just a headline about closures.
It’s a profound market reset. Think about it, 15,000 national store closures, a 55% jump from 2020. That forces landlords to rethink every single retail space. It presents a massive opportunity. Sure. For repurposing or retenanting with innovative concepts. Concepts that via the apocalypse narrative. So opportunity within the challenge.
Exactly. We’re seeing major chains like Party City, Joanne, big Lots, Macy’s. They’re. All pursuing substantial closures, and that obviously has major implications for retail, real estate markets everywhere. It creates both challenges and these new opportunities for strategic repositioning and kind of hand in hand with those closures.
We’re also seeing rising retail occupancy costs, right? Yeah. Putting a direct squeeze on both the retailers and the landlords, that’s a critical point for the sector. Yes, retailers are definitely feeling the pinch. National average occupancy costs hit 7.73%. Now compare that to 5.83% in 2023. That’s nearly two full percentage points higher.
That’s significant. It really is. For a retailer, that kind of jump can be the difference between profit and loss on every square foot. It forces tough decisions on expansion, even survival, and at the same time, average rental rates have climbed to $16 and 59 cents per square foot. That’s a 9% increase over 2022.
So this upward pressure on costs for retailers and simultaneously for landlords trying to maintain margins, it’s creating a very dynamic environment, requires careful management, strategic insight. And in terms of navigating these costs, dollar tree’s, tariff strategy offers maybe a potential playbook for other value focused retailers.
Oh there’s strategically shifting, sourcing, optimizing their logistics, adjusting their product mix, and all of that in turn has implications for their real estate demand and the types of spaces they’re looking for. Interesting playbook, and it begs the question, how are technology and fresh capital reshaping not just retail, but the broader commercial real estate landscape?
Yeah we’re definitely observing a significant and growing trend towards investing in alternative real estate sectors. Institutional investors are increasingly targeting niche. Areas experiential retail is a key sector that seems to be leading the recovery, moving beyond just traditional models.
Experiential, yeah. And this aligns with broader trends where industrial data centers, multifamily assets, they’re also attracting substantial investment. And the general prop tech market property technology is just absolutely booming. It’s a uptick. Yeah. It’s projected to reach $88.37 billion by 2032.
That’s a massive leap from today’s roughly 36.55. Billion dollars. Huge growth. Projected huge. We’re talking AI powered analytics, virtual reality tours, smart building management. All these tools are transforming how commercial real estate is developed, managed, even transacted. And a huge part of this is just the adoption.
82% of PropTech companies are now using or planning to use AI based technology that indicates a truly transformational shift across the industry. 82% using or planning on ai. Yeah, that’s quite something. Now let’s take a quick glance at the DFW residential market, which certainly impacts retail demand. We have that CoStar chart.
Yes. The chart titled Monthly Rent gain Stall during Peak Leasing season in Dallas-Fort Worth. It’s quite insightful actually. It shows that month over month rent growth in DFW, while it’s seen periods of both positive and negative movement since January, 2023. Ups and downs. Exactly. But critically it experienced a stall in May, 2025, and that’s during what’s typically a peak leasing season.
Okay. A stall. Yeah. This indicates a flattening of rent growth and that can directly affect household budgets and consequently consumer spending and retail environments. Makes sense. So we focused heavily on retail, but how are other key CRE sectors responding to these broader economic currents? Let’s quickly scan the landscape for maybe some more headwinds and tailwinds.
Sure. In the office market, for instance, we’re seeing mixed signals. DFWs Class A buildings, the top tier, they’re outperforming, vacancy, actually fell in Q1, 2025. There’s that flight to quality trend companies wanting the newest, most amenity rich spaces, flight to quality. Uptown is leading construction with pretty high rents, around $37 and 84 cents per square foot.
However, the overall DFW office market remains weak and city center is lagging. Now compare that to Manhattan, which is showing some. Early signs of stabilization, but nationally, we’re seeing real pressure in the lending market. The lending side, yeah. The CMVS delinquency rate, that’s commercial mortgage backed securities.
Basically bonds backed by commercial property loans. It’s soared to an 11 year high of 11% in June, 2025. 11% delinquent. Wow. It signals significant distress, especially for older office and retail properties. Struggling to find tenants and crucially to refinance their expiring loans. In today’s higher interest rate environment, in multifamily Texas apartment construction is actually resuming after that tariff pause, which shows some market resilience.
However, world Cup hosts, cities like Houston face risks to affordable housing. You might see surges in hotel and short-term rental demand, possibly leading landlords to convert traditional rentals into vacation units for higher profit the World Cup effect potentially economically. The Federal Reserve paused rates again, their fourth consecutive pause in 2025.
The benchmark rate is holding at 4.25 4.5%. This signals possible future rate cuts, which the market wants to see. Definitely, and it’s crucial because so many CRE loans from the 3.755% range are now facing refinancing at much higher rates, maybe 6.5, 7.5%. This is a significant challenge, especially since two thirds of outstanding CRE debt is held by small banks.
That poses a bit of a systemic risk to the financial system. Small banks holding most of it. And just quickly on the policy front, there is a Senate proposal to extend key commercial real estate tax provisions that would offer some relief and continued support for the sector if it passes. Okay. Lots of moving parts there.
So to summarize our deep dive today, the Dallas-Fort Worth commercial real estate market is well incredibly dynamic. We’ve seen the retail sector in particular demonstrating this ongoing adaptation and resilience even amidst both national challenges and really significant local growth.
Absolutely, and if we connect these insights back to the larger strategic picture, DFW, especially in retail, continues to be a market of well significant activity and opportunity. For those who understand its unique trends, the population shifts, the aggressive mixed use development. We talked about the localized responses to broader economic factors.
There are clear paths for strategic investment and growth. This is precisely why having a deep. Nuanced understanding of the local DFW retail market isn’t just an advantage, it’s really a necessity for making informed decisions. So what does this all mean for you as you navigate this commercial real estate landscape?
It means that while the national headlines might paint a mixed, maybe even uncertain picture, understanding the local market specifics, especially in a vibrant growing region like DFW, it reveals these areas of really robust activity in strategic investment. It highlights where the real opportunities lie, and frankly.
Why that local market expertise is so vital. Now, for a final, provocative thought to leave you with, considering those predictions for increased store closures nationally and the shifting consumer behaviors being driven by ai, how might DFWs unique growth engines and its commitment to developing these walkable mixed use communities, how might that allow its retail sector to not just survive, but actually redefine the physical shopping experience and truly thrive in the years ahead?
Interesting question. Something to mull over as you explore these market nuances. Further, thank you for joining us for the deep dive. We encourage you to continue exploring these market nuances and always seek to add deeper understanding. Join us next time for another deep dive into the insights that matter most.
** News Sources: CoStar Group
Local DFW Commercial Real Estate Expert Selected to Manage Disposition of Multiple District Assets
CEDAR HILL, TX , 06/18/2025, Cedar Hill Independent School District (CHISD) has selected Eureka Business Group, a leading Dallas-Fort Worth commercial real estate firm, to serve as the exclusive broker for the disposition of multiple district properties. The partnership represents a strategic move by CHISD to optimize its real estate portfolio while ensuring maximum value for taxpayers.
Joseph Gozlan, Managing Principal and Licensed Broker at Eureka Business Group, will lead the marketing and sale process for several district-owned properties.
“We’re honored that Cedar Hill ISD has entrusted us with this important responsibility,” said Joseph Gozlan. “These properties represent significant opportunities for both the district and potential buyers. Our deep knowledge of the DFW market and strong relationships with commercial developers position us to achieve optimal outcomes for the district and its taxpayers.”
The selection of Eureka Business Group reflects CHISD’s commitment to working with a local firm that understands the unique dynamics of the Dallas market. EBG’s principals are local DFW residents with extensive experience in municipal and commercial real estate transactions.
The formal bid process will conclude in Q4, 2025, with all bids to be presented to the CHISD Board of Trustees for review and consideration. Interested parties can access bid documents through the district’s IonWave platform.
“These properties offer exciting opportunities for commercial development in one of DFW’s most dynamic growth corridors,” Gozlan noted. “Cedar Hill’s strategic location, strong demographics, and ongoing development activity make this an attractive market for investors and developers.”
Potential buyers interested in learning more about the properties can contact Joseph Gozlan at (903) 600-0616 or joseph@ebgtexas.com.
Founded in 2008, Eureka Business Group is a full-service commercial real estate firm specializing in retail and investment properties throughout the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The firm provides comprehensive brokerage, property management, and consulting services to commercial investors, property owners, and tenants. EBG’s principals combine deep local market knowledge with hands-on investment experience to deliver exceptional results for their clients. For more information, visit www.EBGTX.com
Cedar Hill ISD serves approximately 8,500 students across 17 campuses in Cedar Hill, DeSoto, and portions of Dallas. The district is committed to preparing students for success in college, career, and life through innovative educational programs and strategic resource management. The district’s real estate optimization efforts support its mission of educational excellence while ensuring responsible stewardship of taxpayer resources.
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Welcome to the Deep Dive. This week we’re cutting through the commercial real estate news for the week ending June 13th, 2025. Our goal here is simple, pull out the key insights, the nuggets you need from recent reports and analysis so you can really understand the market. We’ll be focusing particularly on trends relevant to Dallas Fort Worth and, the retail sector.
Yeah, we’ve sifted through quite a bit, Reuters. G Globalist, CRE Daily Modern Retail, the Texas Business Journals, local profile Biz O, commercial Property Executive. The whole gamut. We wanna give you the essentials without you having to wade through everything yourself. Okay. Let’s get into it. You really have to start with the the big economic picture, right?
That sets the stage for everything in CRE. What’s the word from the Federal Reserve? The expectation based on the reports is that they’re likely holding steady. I. Keeping that key interest rate, in the 4.25% to 4.5 u percent range holding steady. And is that purely because inflation looks a bit better?
Not entirely, no. While inflation readings have eased somewhat, the main reason being floated is this ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and trade. That seems to be the big factor, right? That’s right. Issues, exactly. It leads to what they’re calling. Cautious patience, and of course stable. But still elevated rates mean financing costs for commercial real estate remain high.
That impacts deal flow, values everything. And speaking of caution, Jamie Diamond had some pretty strong words, didn’t he? He did. Jamie Diamond over at JP Morgan Chase gave a clear warning. He basically said the boost from pandemic stimulus is wearing off and the real impact of these recent tariffs, he thinks that’s gonna start hitting the actual economic numbers soon.
Soon. Did he give any indication of why we haven’t seen the full impact yet? Something about job growth maybe? Yeah. He pointed out the US labor force has grown quite fast recently, which might have masked some underlying softness, but the really interesting point he made was about stockpiling companies apparently spent about a billion dollars a day stockpiling goods to beat terrors a billion a day.
Wow. Yeah, so that stockpiling has essentially, kicked the can down the road. It’s delayed the visible hit from tariffs, making the timing of this potential deterioration he mentioned, pretty hard to nail down. Okay, so tariffs are a known pressure, but the timing of the fallout is still uncertain because of that stockpiling.
Let’s look at the actual job numbers then Bureau of Labor Statistics from May, 2025. What did that show? May’s job growth was stable but definitely slower than previous months. And interestingly, there were also downward revisions to the job numbers from earlier months, so the pace might not have been quite as strong as first reported.
And did any particular sector stand out in that may report? Yes, and this ties directly into our retail focus today. While overall jobs grew, the retail trade sector actually lost jobs. The report specifically mentioned about a 7,000 job decrease in retail employment compared to April a drop in retail jobs.
Wow. As we’re talking about tariffs potentially hitting soon seems connected. It really does. There is a study mentioned that found tariffs are finally starting to show up in consumer prices for things like furniture and apparel. Prices for those goods are up several percent compared to 20, 24 levels after months of companies trying to absorb it.
It seems they’re passing it on now and higher prices for shoppers. That could mean less foot traffic eventually hitting retail landlords. Exactly. If you’re paying more, you might buy less or shop less often. That squeezes retailers, they face higher costs from tariffs and potentially softer demand.
It makes ’em cautious. Maybe they delay opening a new store. Maybe they try to renegotiate leases. It creates pressure. Okay, so the macro picture is. Cautious tariffs are a big factor. Maybe still playing out and retail is already showing some stress. Let’s shift gears a bit. What about national commercial real estate trends more broadly?
Across different property types. Looking back over the long term, like the last 25 years, from 99 to 2024, it’s fascinating. The median deal size, just the dollar amount, not adjusted for inflation has actually tripled. Tripled in price doc, but are the deals for bigger properties. That’s a surprising part.
No, the actual physical size of the properties in those median deals has gone down. Retail spaces and deals were about 11% smaller, industrial down around 14%, so paying way more per square foot for smaller buildings. Precisely. The average price per square foot jumps something like 200% to 250% for both retail and industrial over that time.
The reasons cited are. Tighter supply of good assets, higher construction costs, making new builds pricey, and investors really focusing on smaller, top tier trophy assets instead of big portfolios. Okay. That’s the long view. What about recent activity, like Q1 of this year, 2025? Q1 showed signs of a rebound median deal volume nationally was up about 30% year over year, and the average price per square foot also climbed up around 15% compared to last year.
So activities picking up and values for what is trading are rising. Yeah, it suggests the market’s finding some traction even with the headwinds is the way deals are getting done changing. Especially thinking about foreign investment. That’s a really keen observation from the reports. International investors are still interested, especially in growth markets, but how they invest is shifting.
Instead of just buying properties outright, we’re seeing more complex deal structures. Things like joint ventures, preferred equity, mezzanine debt. Even rescue capital. Can you break those down a bit? Why the shift? Sure. Think of it like different ways to slice the funding pie JVs are partnerships, share the risk, share the reward.
Preferred equity and Mez debt are in between layers of financing riskier than a standard mortgage, but less risky than pure ownership equity. They offer potentially higher returns. And Rescue Capital is basically funding for projects and trouble that can’t get traditional loans. Investors are using these because while prices are high, rates are high, these structures let them put money to work maybe with less cash upfront or a different risk profile, especially when chasing yield in popular spots like the Sunbelt, or in hot sectors like beta centers.
It’s about managing risk in a pricing market. Got it. So overall, the story for U-S-C-R-E is a gradual comeback from the reason sum. Yeah. That seems to be the narrative. Transaction volumes are definitely up from the bottom. One report. Put the total through May, 2025 at around $30 billion. Still down a bit, maybe 7% from last year’s pace, but nearly tripled the volume we saw during the trough in 2023.
And retail and multifamily sales are leading that pickup. Particularly in those Sunbelt cities. Any other quick sector trends that caught your eye nationally? Yeah, a couple. Medical office construction seems pretty steady, unlike traditional office, which is lagging. There’s also a lot more interest in logistics and especially secure data centers, partly due to supply chain worries, things like.
The Colonial Pipeline hack really woke people up to infrastructure needs. Texas gets mentioned a lot there, and PropTech funding seems to be bouncing back too. Focusing on sustainability data, AI for managing properties. Okay, good overview. Now let’s really zero in on retail specifically. I. Then bring it home to Dallas-Fort Worth.
How are the sources describing the national retail outlook Right now, the phrase that sticks out is resilient and fragile captures the split personality of the sector. Perfectly resilient, but fragile. How does that actually play out? The resilience is in necessity based retail. Grocery stores, fast food chains, gyms, beauty salons, things people use regularly.
Demand there is pretty steady. Okay? The fragility is more in the discretionary categories. Drug stores, dollar stores, certain apparel or home goods retailers, they’re much more sensitive to people cutting back spending due to inflation or those tariff price hikes we talked about. So it really depends on what kind of store we’re talking about.
Exactly. And overall, despite some slower leasing here and there, retail rents and occupancy are generally holding up. Okay. Nationally, a big reason is just a lack of new high quality space being built in many desirable areas. Scarcity helps support values, though you do see more weakness in areas that lost a lot of office workers, that daytime traffic.
Makes sense. Are any specific types of retail properties really hot right now for investors? Oh yeah. Grocery anchored centers, they are absolutely the darling of the retail investment world right now. Sales hit around $7 billion nationally in 2024, and they’re trading at record prices average of $209 per square foot.
Investors love the stability. Grocers sign long leases. They’re reliable tenants and they bring consistent foot traffic that helps the smaller shops in the center too highly sought after. Let’s talk specific retailer news impacting real estate, Walmart and their drones. That sounds pretty futuristic.
It’s happening now though. Walmart is really scaling up drone delivery. They’re adding a hundred new stores to the program, including some right here in Texas, Houston and Dallas specifically. That’s millions more households they can reach. It’s a big move in automating that last mile delivery. And Texas is clearly a key state for them.
And back to apparel, retailers and tariffs. What’s the mood there? It’s definitely cautious. You look at recent earnings calls from Gap, Abercrombie, American Eagle. They’re all talking about rising costs from tariffs and seeing maybe softer demand. For close Gap mentioned like a 200 $300 million hit from tariffs this year.
A EO said $40 million annually. Wow, that pressure on margins, plus maybe people spending less on fashion, it makes them hesitant about opening new stores, maybe even pushes them to renegotiate existing leases. Creates real uncertainty for their physical footprint. But not all apparel is struggling, right?
Boot Barn seems to be doing well. Boot Barn is a great panel example. They’re expanding rapidly, aiming for over 500 stores by 2030, often in smaller markets, not just the big coastal cities. And fun fact, their HQ is right here in Plano, Texas shows there’s still room for growth with the right concept, even with Texas roots.
But then you have the flip side. Like the Hooters closures, right? They abruptly closed dozens of locations, including several in DFW. It’s just an example that some older casual dining or specialty retail concepts are struggling to keep up with costs or changing tastes. And those closures mean vacant properties, often standalone buildings.
Hitting the market here in Texas shows that constant turn. Okay, let’s pivot fully to DFW. Now, the development scene here seems incredibly active based on the reports, what’s fueling it. A huge driver is corporate relocations. Dallas leads the nation. 100 HQ moves between 2018 and 2024. Texas overall, including Austin and Houston, got over a quarter of all USHQ moves last year.
This constant influx of companies, of people, it just fuels demand for everything. Office, industrial, apartments, and definitely retail to serve them all. Yeah. We’re seeing that translate into major projects even in areas previously overlooked, like Southern Dallas. Absolutely. The shops at Redbird, the redevelopment of that old mall is a huge success story.
It’s now a thriving mixed use center with medical and retail, and its success is attracting massive new investment nearby, like the proposed University Hills campus. That’s a billion dollar 1.5 million square foot project with commercial, residential hotel. Even a stadium next to UNT Dallas. Southern Dallas, which historically lagged is seeing explosive industrial growth, 50 million square feet and huge multi-family growth.
It’s being called a growth engine now, and retail is vital to support that and looking north up in Collin County. Huge projects there too for sure. McKinney just approved Huntington Park. That’s a 785 acre mixed use development north of three 80. That scale, residential, commercial, retail altogether is exactly what these booming north Texas suburbs need.
It shows the demand for these integrated live work play places way outside the downtown core. We’re also seeing older retail getting repurposed Aren. Oh, yes. That’s a key trend. The demolition of that old empty outlet mall north of Dallas is a prime example. They’re clearing it to build a new mixed use project, likely office housing and newer, probably smaller format retail.
It’s happening across DFW replacing dated low density retail with higher density mixed use that fits today’s needs. And the report specifically mentioned developers targeting certain fast-growing suburbs. Yeah. Places like Frisco, the Colony and Alan McKinney were highlighted. That’s where developers see a lot of the current action following the population and job growth right up the corridor.
Okay. Let’s try to wrap this up. So the big economic picture is, complex. We have the Fed holding steady, but warnings about tariffs and potential slowdowns from people like Jamie Diamond. Retail is already feeling some of that, right? Nationally. CRE is recovering in terms of deal volume, but capital is getting more creative with JVs and preferred equity, especially chasing yield in the Sunbelt and within retail.
It’s really a split story. Necessity and grocery anchored are strong, but discretionary retail is facing more pressure and bringing it back to DFW. It’s incredibly dynamic. Massive growth fueled by corporate moves is driving huge projects in places like Southern Dallas and McKinney. But we’re also seeing adaptations, old malls coming down from mixed use and some specific retailers struggling while others like boot barn expand.
It’s constant change. It really is. You’ve got this national economic uncertainty layered on top of intense local growth here. It creates a complex market, but definitely one with opportunities if you know where to look, especially in retail across different DFW Submarkets. So thinking about all these moving parts, the national economy, the shifts within retail itself, and this really intense development and demographic change happening across Dallas Fort Worth, how does that shape your perspective on where.
The specific retail real estate opportunities and maybe the challenges lie in different parts of DFW right now. That’s the key question, isn’t it? It really comes down to understanding the specific location, the tenant mix, and those local growth patterns. The details matter immensely here. Indeed, they do.
That brings us to the end of this deep dive. Thanks for joining us.
** News Sources: CoStar Group
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